Tornado Warning 15, NWS Rapid City, SD

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
509 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2019

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Thursday)
Issued at 201 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2019

19z surface analysis had front from southern MN into northern NE
west into central WY. North of boundary, CU field evident but
pretty stable looking at this point which is confirmed by peek at
19z KUNR sounding. Some elevated convection evident on
radar/satellite loops which is also supported with MUCAPE per 19z
KUNR sounding. Water vapour had 75kt jet streak from western WY
into western ND with a wave starting to show up over western WY.
Models indicate this wave will move east/northeast through tonight
bringing upper support to the CWA. Question is whether we can get
surface-based convection near the boundary with 2+KJ/kg MLCAPE
forecast along with 40-50kt 0-6km bulk shear. Active severe
weather with supercells would result, especially this evening.
Considered a Flash Flood watch, but 850-300mb mean wind increasing
to 30-35kt with supercell motion around 25kts all to the east.
PWATs are 125-175% of normal. Will have to be watched, especially
if training cells develop across the far south. Temperatures
tonight will be near guidance. Patchy fog possible late near the
higher terrain.

Friday, weather will be largely modulated by where tonight's
eventual convective complex ends up. Complex should push surface
boundary well south of the CWA. Upstream shortwave forecast by all
guidance to come through WY/eastern MT during the day Friday which
would support a blobby patch of convection elevated in nature.
This would suppress surface based convection possibilities again
until late in the day. Later forecast can better hone timing and
expectations. Patchy fog possible early. Temperatures will be near
guidance.

Saturday and Sunday, active weather possible again, especially
Sunday with better thermodynamics forecast. Early next week, a
somewhat drier and warmer pattern develops but storms still
possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued At 505 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2019

Widespread thunderstorms will continue to develop and spread east
across the region this evening. Storms will exit northeast WY by
midnight but linger across western SD until around 12Z Friday.
IFR and local LIFR conditions likely in heavier storms. Areas of
MVFR ceilings are expected overnight and into Friday across the
Black Hills area and the SD plains, slowly decreasing during the
day Friday.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Helgeson
AVIATION...Johnson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
338 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2019

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-051300-
Harding-Perkins-Butte-Northern Meade Co Plains-Ziebach-
Northern Black Hills-Northern Foot Hills-Rapid City-
Southern Foot Hills-Central Black Hills-Southern Black Hills-
Custer Co Plains-Pennington Co Plains-Haakon-Fall River-
Oglala Lakota-Jackson-Bennett-Mellette-Todd-Tripp-
Sturgis/Piedmont Foot Hills-Southern Meade Co Plains-
Hermosa Foot Hills-Northern Campbell-Southern Campbell-
Western Crook-Wyoming Black Hills-Weston-Northeastern Crook-
338 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2019 /438 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western South Dakota and
northeastern Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and heavy
rain are the main severe weather threats, although a couple
tornadoes are also possible. The threat for severe weather
gradually increases toward the area near the southern Campbell
and Weston Counties in Wyoming and near the Nebraska and South
Dakota state line.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. Severe
thunderstorms are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
714 PM MDT THU JUL 04 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0714 PM     HEAVY RAIN       STURGIS                 44.41N 103.51W
07/04/2019  M0.80 INCH       MEADE              SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            IN 1 HOUR

&&

ME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
716 PM MDT THU JUL 04 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     TSTM WND GST     25 ESE WRIGHT           43.55N 105.09W
07/04/2019  M71 MPH          CAMPBELL           WY   MESONET

            TIME ESTIMATED USING RADAR

&&

JJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
726 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2019

SDZ013-014-073-050215-
Ziebach SD-Southern Meade Co Plains SD-Northern Meade Co Plains SD-
726 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ZIEBACH AND
NORTHEASTERN MEADE COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM MDT...

At 726 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northeast of Marcus, or 22 miles south of Faith, moving east at
40 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Plainview, Red Scaffold, Marcus, Howes, Intersection of Cherry Creek
and Sunnybrook Roads and Takini School.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
west central South Dakota.

LAT...LON 4459 10228 4471 10230 4478 10221 4497 10157
      4466 10152
TIME...MOT...LOC 0126Z 251DEG 34KT 4470 10217

Sherburn

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
750 PM MDT THU JUL 04 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 SSW CLARETON          43.58N 104.74W
07/04/2019  E60 MPH          WESTON             WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
801 PM MDT THU JUL 04 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 WNW DOWNTOWN NEWCASTL 43.88N 104.31W
07/04/2019  M69 MPH          WESTON             WY   AWOS

&&

JJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
802 PM MDT THU JUL 04 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0801 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 E WRIGHT              43.75N 105.48W
07/04/2019  M1.04 INCH       CAMPBELL           WY   PUBLIC

&&

ME