Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
153 PM MST Sun Jul 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Monday and Tuesday will have fewer storms with higher
afternoon temperatures as high pressure moves over the area. Then
Wednesday into the weekend the high will slowly drift east
allowing for a more favorable monsoon flow to develop. This will
bring about an increase in storms and a gradual decrease in
temperatures back to seasonal norms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Convection is developing right on schedule this
evening with a storm already pounding on the Chiricahua mountains
and Mt Graham with significant buildups across other mountains
east of Tucson. Soon we should see storms over the mountains
south of Tucson as well as there is plenty of instability to work
with. Will need to keep a watchful eye on the storms including
those that may impact the metro area later today.

As we move into Monday and Tuesday the upper high that was in a
favorable location will migrate right over the area as an upper
level trough passes across the northern tier of states. This will
help to suppress convection through this period with some mid-
level warming, a bit of drying in the column and unfavorable
vertical motion. It won't eliminate the threat, just cut it back
significantly and our pops reflect that. Along with that, fewer
clouds and elevated thicknesses will allow for continued very
warm afternoon temperatures, on the order of 4-8 degrees warmer
than average.

Then Wednesday onward the upper high slides to the east removing
its suppressive influence and opening the area to a more favorable
southerly flow. All that should provide an increase in
thunderstorm coverage the latter half of the week into the
weekend. The latest deterministic runs are also suggesting a small
disturbance/wave of tropical origin may rotate up the backside of
the high Friday/Saturday which would provide a nice bump in storm
development if it comes to pass. Through this time our afternoon
temperatures will slide back down to more "normal" levels which
means around 100 in Tucson and Safford, and 95ish in Nogales and
Douglas.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 16/00Z.
Scattered TSRA/SHRA to the east and south of KTUS. Brief gusts of
40-45 kts possible vicinity stronger TSRA. BLDU may also reduce
VSBYS down to 1-3 SM. Otherwise, SCT-BKN cloud decks generally at
8k-14k ft MSL through 15/05Z, with slowly diminishing clouds
again late tonight. SFC wind generally less than 12 kts thru the
forecast period. There will be some afternoon and early evening
gusts to around 20 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure aloft near the Four Corners and
moisture in place will bring about isolated to scattered mainly
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across southeast
Arizona today, likely very similar to what occurred yesterday. A
slight downturn in activity is expected Monday and Tuesday before
favorable conditions return Wednesday into next weekend. Wind
speeds will generally be less than 15 mph this week, outside of
any gusty outflow winds. Strong, gusty and erratic outflow winds
to 45-50 mph are possible with any thunderstorms that do develop.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

PUBLIC...Cerniglia
AVIATION....Pawlak
FIRE WEATHER...Pawlak

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