Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Tucson, AZ

182 
WWUS55 KTWC 010105
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
605 PM MST Sat Aug 31 2019

AZC021-010130-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-190901T0130Z/
Pinal-
605 PM MST Sat Aug 31 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM MST
FOR EAST CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY...

At 604 PM MST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Aravaipa Canyon
Wilderness, or 10 miles north of Mammoth, moving west at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Dudleyville and Aravaipa Canyon Wilderness. 

This includes Route 77 between mile markers 117 and 133.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3305 11060 3299 11051 3285 11048 3274 11067
      3293 11082 3302 11066
TIME...MOT...LOC 0104Z 068DEG 14KT 3287 11060 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

AH

798 
WWUS55 KTWC 010126
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
626 PM MST Sat Aug 31 2019

AZC021-010136-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-190901T0130Z/
Pinal-
626 PM MST Sat Aug 31 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 630 PM MST...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3305 11060 3299 11051 3285 11048 3274 11067
      3293 11082 3302 11066
TIME...MOT...LOC 0126Z 054DEG 11KT 3283 11066 

$$

AH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
250 PM MST Sat Aug 31 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Today is the last day of meteorological summer. The
favorable weather pattern for daily afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will remain in place through at least the middle of
next week. Daily variation with daytime temperatures over the next
7 days with readings remaining above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...This is the last day of meteorological Summer 2019,
one which has been rather hot and dismal on rainfall.

Slow start to thunderstorm activity across most of southeast
Arizona this afternoon. The exception is up across the White
Mountains where a few storms have been frisky. 12z upper air plots
placed 500 mb high over east central Arizona and the 300 mb high
over AZ/CA border producing ENE flow over the area. Both features
are slowly drifting north this afternoon. PWAT values range from
0.70" across the Whites mountains to 1.5" west/southwest of
Tucson. At the surface dewpoints this afternoon are in the 50s to
lower 60s. Water vapor imagery showed a weak upper level
disturbance over El Paso moving slowly SSW. Differing views on
evolution of storms this afternoon/evening with the 12z UofA
WRFNAM much more active, especially from Tucson south and west
than the 12z UofA WRFGFS and the 19z HRRR. Based on the motion of
the upper level disturbance near El Paso, this feature will
continue to move SSW enhancing thunderstorms across northern
Chihuahua and Sonora. So isolated to scattered storms into the
evening hours with best areal coverage being south and southwest
of Tucson.

Models hinting an increase in low-level moisture overnight west of
Tucson thanks to outflows moving NW from northern Sonoran storms.
This will likely lead to an increase in areal thunderstorm
coverage from Tucson west and north on Sunday.

Labor Day could be a down day depending on how worked over the
atmosphere gets after Sundays activity.

Upper high will remain in a favorable position for the remainder
of next week for continued daily rounds of isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

High temperatures for the first full week of September will see
daily variations but for the most part will remain a bit above
normal.

&&

AVIATION...Valid through 02/00Z.
Isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA developing aft 31/22Z and
persisting thru 01/06Z. Brief MVFR based on CIGS/VSBY from heavier
TS will be possible. Otherwise, expect FEW-SCT clouds at 8k-12k ft
MSL (locally BKN) thru 01/06Z and then again aft 01/18Z, with BKN-
OVC clouds AOA 20k ft MSL between 01/00Z and 01/09Z. SFC wind less
than 12 kts thru the forecast period and either variable in
direction or favoring an ELY/SELY direction. Gusty winds possible
near -TSRA/-SHRA. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A favorable flow regime combined with adequate
moisture will result in the daily cycle of mainly afternoon and
evening isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this weekend
and into at least the middle of next week. Expect gusty and erratic
winds with the stronger thunderstorms. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will
be terrain driven mainly under 15 mph.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
204 PM MST Sat Aug 31 2019

AZZ509-510-312145-
Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including Clifton/Safford-White
Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties including Hannagan Meadow-
204 PM MST Sat Aug 31 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY UNTIL
245 PM MST...

At 204 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Blue, or 24 miles west of Reserve, moving south at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hannagan Meadow, Blue and Rose Peak.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3329 10906 3334 10947 3372 10934 3373 10905
      3371 10904 3337 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 015DEG 15KT 3358 10915

GL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
420 PM MST Sat Aug 31 2019

AZZ509>511-010015-
Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including Clifton/Safford-White
Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties including Hannagan
Meadow-Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains including Mount Graham-
420 PM MST Sat Aug 31 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN GRAHAM COUNTY UNTIL 515
PM MST...

At 419 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 16 miles east of San Carlos to 8 miles north of
Thatcher. Movement was southwest at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and blowing dust will be possible with
these storms, followed by brief heavy rain in some locations.

Locations impacted include...
Safford, Thatcher, Pima, Bylas, Fort Thomas, Calva, Mount Graham,
Frye Mesa Dam and San Carlos Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3304 10955 3258 10986 3310 11044 3319 11044
      3320 11040 3325 11044 3331 11044 3344 11026
      3345 11018 3346 11017 3346 11005
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 042DEG 18KT 3333 11019 3295 10973

Meyer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
426 PM MST Sat Aug 31 2019

AZZ509>511-010030-
Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including Clifton/Safford-White
Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties including Hannagan
Meadow-Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains including Mount Graham-
426 PM MST Sat Aug 31 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GRAHAM AND SOUTHERN
GREENLEE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM MST...

At 424 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles west of Morenci to 10 miles northwest
of Virden. Movement was southwest at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 45 mph and small hail will be possible with these
storms, along with brief heavy rain.

Locations impacted include...
Safford, Clifton, Solomon, Roper Lake State Park, Safford Regional
Airport, Duncan, York, Franklin, Swift Trail Junction and Guthrie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3258 10985 3305 10954 3300 10905 3248 10906
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 042DEG 16KT 3300 10950 3283 10907

Meyer