Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Tucson, AZ

924 
WWUS55 KTWC 282205
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
305 PM MST Wed Aug 28 2019

AZC003-019-282230-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0079.000000T0000Z-190828T2230Z/
Pima-Cochise-
305 PM MST Wed Aug 28 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM MST
FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA AND WEST CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTIES...

At 305 PM MST, a severe thunderstorm was located 16 miles north of
Benson, moving west at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Cascabel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3230 11027 3215 11019 3204 11043 3230 11053
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 071DEG 10KT 3220 11032 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Carpenter

801 
WWUS55 KTWC 282228
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
328 PM MST Wed Aug 28 2019

AZC003-019-282238-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0079.000000T0000Z-190828T2230Z/
Pima-Cochise-
328 PM MST Wed Aug 28 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA AND WEST
CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 330 PM MST...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3230 11027 3215 11019 3204 11043 3230 11053
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 071DEG 10KT 3218 11038 

$$

Carpenter

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
240 PM MST Wed Aug 28 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Adequate moisture combined with a favorable flow will
potentially produce an active period of showers and thunderstorms,
especially especially this evening. Brief strong gusty winds and
locally rainfall may occur. Otherwise, scattered mainly afternoon
and evening thunderstorms can be expected Thursday into early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered showers were developing this
afternoon in the mountains of southeast Arizona and along the
Mogollon Rim into the White Mountains. The upper high was situated
over southwest Arizona with a north to northeast steering flow over
the area today. An MCV spinning over Sonora, Mexico was showing up
nicely in visible satellite imagery early this afternoon. This
feature might aid in the development of thunderstorms near the
International Border this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, storms
forming in the mountains should eventually track west and southwest
into the lower deserts this evening. Areas of blowing dust will be
possible across Pinal county as outflow from thunderstorms become
organized and travel north toward Phoenix down the Santa Cruz River
Valley. Models continued to suggest a more active weather pattern
for daily thunderstorms compared to the past several days. Models
were in agreement with the upper high over southwest Arizona
transitioning to a position over the Four Corners region this coming
weekend. This position of the upper high will also favor daily
thunderstorm activity over the weekend into early next week. Given
the increasing rain chances, daytime temperatures will also begin to
moderate some through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 30/00Z.
Scattered -TSRA/-SHRA across much of southeast Arizona this evening.
Brief wind gusts approaching 50 kts and MVFR vsbys/cigs with the
strongest TSRA. Isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA continuing late
tonight and Thursday.

Otherwise, cloud decks mainly 10k-15k ft MSL through Thursday. Aside
from thunderstorm gusts, surface wind variable in direction and
mainly under 12 kts. The exception is vicinity KSAD with nwly
surface wind 12-20 kts and gusts near 25 kts late this afternoon.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered to perhaps numerous thunderstorms this
evening and tonight. Thereafter, a favorable flow regime combined
with adequate moisture will provide the daily cycle of mainly
afternoon and evening thunderstorms Thursday into next Tuesday.
Expect gusty and erratic winds with the stronger thunderstorms.
Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be terrain driven mainly under 15 mph.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
106 PM MST Wed Aug 28 2019

AZZ509-510-282045-
Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including Clifton/Safford-White
Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties including Hannagan Meadow-
106 PM MST Wed Aug 28 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL GRAHAM AND NORTHERN
GREENLEE COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM MST...

At 105 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Hannagan Meadow, or 25 miles west of Reserve,
moving south at 5 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hannagan Meadow, Blue and Rose Peak.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3328 10904 3352 10972 3353 10971 3354 10968
      3358 10967 3359 10962 3361 10960 3362 10953
      3366 10948 3370 10947 3373 10935 3375 10936
      3378 10935 3378 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 002DEG 5KT 3369 10921

RH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
204 PM MST Wed Aug 28 2019

AZZ507-508-511-513-282145-
Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Eastern Cochise County Below 5000
Feet including Douglas/Willcox-Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains
including Mount Graham-
204 PM MST Wed Aug 28 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY UNTIL
245 PM MST...

At 202 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles north of Dragoon, or 14 miles west of Willcox. This storm was
nearly stationary.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly remote areas of northwestern
Cochise County and may affect portions of I-10 between Wilcox and
Benson.

LAT...LON 3241 11012 3221 10988 3206 11004 3225 11028
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 036DEG 3KT 3223 11008

AH