Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Tucson, AZ

714 
WWUS55 KTWC 022025
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
125 PM MST Fri Aug 2 2019

AZC019-023-022045-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-190802T2045Z/
Pima-Santa Cruz-
125 PM MST Fri Aug 2 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM MST
FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA AND NORTHERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES...

At 125 PM MST, a severe thunderstorm was located 10 miles southeast
of Corona De Tucson, or 18 miles southeast of Sahuarita, moving north
at 5 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Sonoita and Corona De Tucson. 

This includes the following highways...
 Route 82 between mile markers 40 and 42.
 Route 83 between mile markers 36 and 54.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3172 11049 3171 11076 3194 11082 3196 11051
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 175DEG 6KT 3184 11066 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

AH

238 
WWUS55 KTWC 022043
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
143 PM MST Fri Aug 2 2019

AZC019-023-022052-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-190802T2045Z/
Pima-Santa Cruz-
143 PM MST Fri Aug 2 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA AND NORTHERN
SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 145 PM MST...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3172 11049 3171 11076 3194 11082 3196 11051
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 191DEG 4KT 3181 11059 

$$

AH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
933 AM MST Fri Aug 2 2019

.UPDATE...

Most recent high resolution model guidance predicting isolated
thunderstorm activity to begin during the late morning hours and
persist into the evening. The main areas of focus will be south
and east of Tucson, but cannot rule out activity in and around
Tucson at some point today. Main threats will be heavy and intense
rainfall, as the atmosphere is quite moist. Particular concerns
are for potential debris flows near the Frye Burn Scar area, as
well as heavy intense rainfall near the International Border. In
addition to convective activity today, attention should be paid to
hotter than normal temperatures. With many area schools starting
early next week, extra caution should be taken to prepare
children. MJS

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 303 AM MST Fri Aug 2 2019/

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures in most of southeast Arizona will climb
to above average today through Monday. Daily rounds of isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be most prevalent
south and east of Tucson.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Currently across SE AZ, skies are mostly clear to
partly cloudy. This should allow for ample heating, which should
lead to MLCAPE values in the 1000-1500 j/kg range this afternoon.
Moisture remains in the area with GOES 16/17 satellite estimating
around 1.6" PWAT across the central and western portions of the
CWA and slightly lower across the eastern section. This also
lines up quite well with the SPC RAP analysis for the region.
Digging into the high resolution models and analyzing satellite
imagery, there appears to be some marginally enhanced mid/upper
level flow across west TX and northern Chihuahua, which is
forecast to move across southern AZ later this afternoon. Another
sneaky hint this exists, is a cluster of storms that developed the
past hour or so. Although its nothing to write home about, it
should be enough for an average monsoon day. This means convection
would be noticeably more active than yesterday. Storms should
initially form across the higher terrain and as flow increases
during the afternoon, will likely move into some valley
locations. This will further be enhanced by the typical outflow
bndry ping pong in the late afternoon and early evening. The main
threat today will be for localized heavy rain. In fact, WPC
updated the day 1 excessive rainfall outlook to account for the
possibility by introducing a marginal risk. Gusty outflow winds
will also be possible with the stronger storms.

Convection should linger into the evening as the weak forcing
will still be moving across the area. Some forecast models try and
keep convection going across the International Border, but
confidence is low on this solution. It will be dependent on any
MCS development over northern Sonora.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue each day
through the weekend and into early next week. Temperatures are
expected to remain above average.

Models remain in agreement, that an upswing in convection is
possible by the middle of next week and persisting through the
rest of the week. This would also come with temperatures lowering
to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 03/12Z.
SCT-BKN clouds AOA 25k ft with SCT-BKN clouds 8-12k ft developing
aft 02/18Z. Scattered SHRA/TSRA return aft 02/19Z, diminishing aft
03/04Z. Light and variable surface winds except trending westerly
during the afternoon hours. Gusty and erratic winds near any TSRA
with local MVFR CIGS and VSBYS. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...We'll see enough moisture in the area for a
chance of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
into the weekend, with an increase in storm coverage the first half
of next week. Minimum RH values will remain above 20-25 percent, and
overnight recoveries will be very good. Gusty erratic outflow winds
from storm outflows, otherwise normal wind trends.

&&

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

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