Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Tucson, AZ

494 
WWUS55 KTWC 150052
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
552 PM MST Sun Jul 14 2019

AZC019-150102-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-190715T0100Z/
Pima-
552 PM MST Sun Jul 14 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 600 PM MST...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3186 11125 3168 11133 3177 11158 3197 11149
TIME...MOT...LOC 0052Z 115DEG 6KT 3183 11145 

$$

RH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
153 PM MST Sun Jul 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Monday and Tuesday will have fewer storms with higher
afternoon temperatures as high pressure moves over the area. Then
Wednesday into the weekend the high will slowly drift east
allowing for a more favorable monsoon flow to develop. This will
bring about an increase in storms and a gradual decrease in
temperatures back to seasonal norms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Convection is developing right on schedule this
evening with a storm already pounding on the Chiricahua mountains
and Mt Graham with significant buildups across other mountains
east of Tucson. Soon we should see storms over the mountains
south of Tucson as well as there is plenty of instability to work
with. Will need to keep a watchful eye on the storms including
those that may impact the metro area later today.

As we move into Monday and Tuesday the upper high that was in a
favorable location will migrate right over the area as an upper
level trough passes across the northern tier of states. This will
help to suppress convection through this period with some mid-
level warming, a bit of drying in the column and unfavorable
vertical motion. It won't eliminate the threat, just cut it back
significantly and our pops reflect that. Along with that, fewer
clouds and elevated thicknesses will allow for continued very
warm afternoon temperatures, on the order of 4-8 degrees warmer
than average.

Then Wednesday onward the upper high slides to the east removing
its suppressive influence and opening the area to a more favorable
southerly flow. All that should provide an increase in
thunderstorm coverage the latter half of the week into the
weekend. The latest deterministic runs are also suggesting a small
disturbance/wave of tropical origin may rotate up the backside of
the high Friday/Saturday which would provide a nice bump in storm
development if it comes to pass. Through this time our afternoon
temperatures will slide back down to more "normal" levels which
means around 100 in Tucson and Safford, and 95ish in Nogales and
Douglas.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 16/00Z.
Scattered TSRA/SHRA to the east and south of KTUS. Brief gusts of
40-45 kts possible vicinity stronger TSRA. BLDU may also reduce
VSBYS down to 1-3 SM. Otherwise, SCT-BKN cloud decks generally at
8k-14k ft MSL through 15/05Z, with slowly diminishing clouds
again late tonight. SFC wind generally less than 12 kts thru the
forecast period. There will be some afternoon and early evening
gusts to around 20 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure aloft near the Four Corners and
moisture in place will bring about isolated to scattered mainly
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across southeast
Arizona today, likely very similar to what occurred yesterday. A
slight downturn in activity is expected Monday and Tuesday before
favorable conditions return Wednesday into next weekend. Wind
speeds will generally be less than 15 mph this week, outside of
any gusty outflow winds. Strong, gusty and erratic outflow winds
to 45-50 mph are possible with any thunderstorms that do develop.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

PUBLIC...Cerniglia
AVIATION....Pawlak
FIRE WEATHER...Pawlak

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
212 PM MST Sun Jul 14 2019

AZZ503-513-142145-
Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar
Valleys including Nogales-
212 PM MST Sun Jul 14 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
UNTIL 245 PM MST...

At 211 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Nogales International Airport, or 12 miles east of Nogales, moving
northwest at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Nogales, Rio Rico, Patagonia, Nogales International Airport,
Patagonia Lake State Park and Kino Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3135 11101 3152 11097 3164 11086 3146 11061
      3133 11069 3133 11089
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 118DEG 8KT 3142 11074

Cerniglia

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
301 PM MST Sun Jul 14 2019

AZZ503-504-507-513-142230-
Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar
Valleys including Nogales-Tucson Metro Area including Tucson/Green
Valley/Marana/Vail-
301 PM MST Sun Jul 14 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PIMA AND CENTRAL
SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM MST...

At 300 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Patagonia Lake State Park, or 12 miles east of Tubac, moving west at
5 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rio Rico, Patagonia, Patagonia Lake State Park and Madera Canyon.

LAT...LON 3173 11073 3144 11075 3144 11102 3173 11099
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 099DEG 5KT 3158 11084

RH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
507 PM MST Sun Jul 14 2019

AZZ502-503-515-150030-
Tohono O'odham Nation including Sells-Upper Santa Cruz River and
Altar Valleys including Nogales-Baboquivari Mountains including Kitt
Peak-
507 PM MST Sun Jul 14 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM MST...

At 507 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southwest of Arivaca, or 30 miles west of Tubac, moving west at
5 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Arivaca and Sasabe.

LAT...LON 3153 11169 3192 11152 3181 11121 3155 11124
      3154 11142 3145 11145
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 097DEG 5KT 3149 11154

RH