Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Tucson, AZ

489 
WWUS55 KTWC 120312
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
812 PM MST Sat May 11 2019

AZC019-120330-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190512T0330Z/
Pima-
812 PM MST Sat May 11 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM MST
FOR NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY...

At 808 PM MST, A severe thunderstorm located near Saguaro National 
Park West, or 7 miles southeast of Marana, moving west-northwest at 
15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicates the storm is moving to the west-northwest 
         over Drexel Heights and the Tucson Heights area.  Strong 
         gusts to 60 mph will proceed the storm. Less of a threat 
         exists for the Oro Valley area at this time. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Tucson, Catalina, Oro Valley, Marana, Davis-Monthan Air Force Base,
Casas Adobes, Drexel Heights, Flowing Wells, South Tucson, Three
Points, Avra Valley, Pascua Pueblo Yaqui Reservation, Tortolita,
Summit, Catalina State Park, Tucson Estates, Saguaro National Park
West, Catalina Foothills, Valencia West and Tucson International
Airport.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 10 between mile markers 233 and 268.
 Interstate 19 between mile markers 51 and 63.
 Route 77 between mile markers 70 and 85.
 Route 86 between mile markers 154 and 171.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3213 11085 3198 11103 3210 11128 3250 11141
      3250 11093
TIME...MOT...LOC 0308Z 149DEG 23KT 3231 11112 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Cerniglia

517 
WWUS55 KTWC 120325
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
825 PM MST Sat May 11 2019

AZC019-120333-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190512T0330Z/
Pima-
825 PM MST Sat May 11 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 830 PM MST...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty 
winds and heavy rain are still expected with this thunderstorm as it 
drifts to the west. 

LAT...LON 3213 11085 3198 11103 3210 11128 3250 11141
      3250 11093
TIME...MOT...LOC 0323Z 149DEG 23KT 3235 11115 

$$

Cerniglia

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
328 PM MST Sat May 11 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase in the
later afternoon and evening hours across much of the area. Sunday
will see the best chances as a storm system moves south of the
area. Enough moisture Monday for scattered thunderstorms east of
Tucson, then thunderstorms limited to the White Mountains Tuesday
and Wednesday. Expect well below normal temperatures this weekend,
then much warmer by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A low pressure system currently tracking across
northern Baja will pass just to our south over the next 36 hours.
Increasing showers and thunderstorms this evening with the best
chances Sunday. With the supporting dynamics from the low, some
storm activity will tend to ignore normal diurnal trends. Expect
strong gusty outflows with some storms, and brief moderate to heavy
rainfall possible.

High pressure will bring a strong warming trend early in the new
week with some drying and less favorable dynamics limiting
convection to a few eastern mountain locations.

Ensemble and ensemble mean output suggest another unseasonably
deep system the second half of the new week into next weekend.
It's unclear if we will have enough moisture for significant rain
chances, but it should serve to knock temperatures back below
average and bring some gusty winds late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 13/00Z.
Isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA north and northeast of KTUS
this afternoon. Scattered -TSRA/-SHRA tonight into Sunday morning
mainly KTUS vicinity swd/wwd to the International border. Greater
coverage of -TSRA/-SHRA expected late Sunday morning into Sunday
evening as a low pressure system moves south of the area. Brief
wind gusts near 45 kts may occur with the stronger TSRA.

Otherwise, SKC-SCT clouds near 10k ft MSL becoming SCT-BKN decks 8k-
12k ft MSL by this evening and continuing into Sunday. Surface wind
variable in direction mainly under 12 kts, although favoring a swly/
wly component this afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered showers and thunderstorms northeast of
Tucson today. The coverage of showers and thunderstorms will
increase tonight and especially Sunday as a low pressure system
moves south of the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms to
occur Monday east of Tucson, then isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday across the White Mountains. Dry
conditions to prevail Thursday into Friday except for a few
thunderstorms across the White Mountains on Friday. Expect gusty and
erratic winds vicinity thunderstorms. An approaching low pressure
system late next week may produce gusty south to southwest winds at
times. Otherwise, 20-foot winds mainly under 15 mph.

&&

.CLIMATE...There is the potential for a few moderate to heavy
showers mainly tonight into Monday. Posted on our website and social
media platforms is a graphic of daily rainfall records this weekend
along with the May normal and wettest May data.

There is the possibility that Tucson International Airport could
record more rainfall this weekend versus what was recorded during
the previous nine months of May combined, which totaled only 0.14".

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Meyer/Rasmussen

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
718 PM MST Sat May 11 2019

AZZ504-507-514-120300-
Santa Catalina and Rincon Mountains including Mount
Lemmon/Summerhaven-Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Tucson Metro Area including Tucson/Green
Valley/Marana/Vail-
718 PM MST Sat May 11 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY UNTIL
800 PM MST...

At 717 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Summit, or 5 miles south of Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, moving
north at 15 mph.

Up to half inch hail and winds to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tucson, Marana, Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, Casas Adobes, Drexel
Heights, Flowing Wells, Tanque Verde, Vail, South Tucson, East
Sahuarita, Sabino Canyon Recreation Area, Summit, Catalina Foothills,
Corona De Tucson, Tucson International Airport, Saguaro National Park
East, Rita Ranch, San Xavier Mission and Seven Falls.

LAT...LON 3191 11070 3195 11094 3233 11113 3235 11074
TIME...MOT...LOC 0217Z 158DEG 15KT 3208 11086

Zell