Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Tucson, AZ

036 
WWUS85 KTWC 260333
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
833 PM MST Sat May 25 2019

AZZ151-152-261500-
/O.CON.KTWC.FW.W.0005.190526T1800Z-190527T0100Z/
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 151
Eastern Pima County-Southeastern Pinal County-
Santa Cruz County-Western Cochise County-
Coronado NF-TDC-Arizona Fire Weather Zone 152
Southern Greenlee County-Central and Eastern Cochise County-
Southern Graham County-Southern San Carlos Apache Nation-
833 PM MST Sat May 25 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM MST
SUNDAY FOR STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS, LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 5500 FEET IN
SOUTHERN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 151 AND EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 152...

* TIMING...11 AM to 6 PM MST Sunday.

* WINDS...Sustained 20-foot south to southwest winds of 15 to 
  30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...Minimum relative humidity values between 
  8 and 15 percent. 

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop or are ongoing will have the 
  potential to spread rapidly.

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...Visit 
  weather.gov/Tucson and click on the Detailed Hazards Icon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or are expected to develop. A
combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and dry
vegetation will create the potential for rapid and erratic fire
growth.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of the Red Flag Warning for portions of Southeast Arizona.

&&

$$

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477 
WWUS85 KTWC 260936
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
236 AM MST Sun May 26 2019

AZZ151-152-262300-
/O.CON.KTWC.FW.W.0005.190526T1800Z-190527T0100Z/
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 151
Eastern Pima County-Southeastern Pinal County-
Santa Cruz County-Western Cochise County-
Coronado NF-TDC-Arizona Fire Weather Zone 152
Southern Greenlee County-Central and Eastern Cochise County-
Southern Graham County-Southern San Carlos Apache Nation-
236 AM MST Sun May 26 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS, LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW
5500 FEET IN SOUTHERN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 151 AND EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152...

* TIMING...11 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this evening.

* WINDS...Sustained 20-foot south to southwest winds of 15 to 
  30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...Minimum relative humidity values between 
  8 and 15 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop or are ongoing will have the 
  potential to spread rapidly.

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...Visit 
  weather.gov/Tucson and click on the Detailed Hazards Icon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or are expected to develop. A
combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and dry
vegetation will create the potential for rapid and erratic fire
growth.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of the Red Flag Warning for portions of Southeast Arizona.

&&

$$


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031 
WWUS85 KTWC 262057
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
157 PM MST Sun May 26 2019


AZZ151-152-270100-
/O.CON.KTWC.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-190527T0100Z/
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 151
Eastern Pima County-Southeastern Pinal County-
Santa Cruz County-Western Cochise County-
Coronado NF-TDC-Arizona Fire Weather Zone 152
Southern Greenlee County-Central and Eastern Cochise County-
Southern Graham County-Southern San Carlos Apache Nation-
157 PM MST Sun May 26 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 5500 FEET IN SOUTHERN FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 151 AND EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152...

* TIMING...Until 6 PM MST this evening.

* WINDS...Sustained 20-foot south to southwest winds of 15 to 
  30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...Minimum relative humidity values between 
  8 and 15 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop or are ongoing will have the 
  potential to spread rapidly.

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...Visit 
  weather.gov/Tucson and click on the Detailed Hazards Icon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or are expected to develop. A
combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and dry
vegetation will create the potential for rapid and erratic fire
growth.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of the Red Flag Warning for portions of Southeast Arizona.

&&

$$


Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

096 
WWUS85 KTWC 270059
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
559 PM MST Sun May 26 2019

AZZ151-152-270200-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-190527T0100Z/
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 151
Eastern Pima County-Southeastern Pinal County-
Santa Cruz County-Western Cochise County-
Coronado NF-TDC-Arizona Fire Weather Zone 152
Southern Greenlee County-Central and Eastern Cochise County-
Southern Graham County-Southern San Carlos Apache Nation-
559 PM MST Sun May 26 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND HIGH
FIRE DANGER FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 5500 FEET IN SOUTHERN FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 151 AND EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152...

Gusty winds continue to diminish in speed and relative humidity 
values have mostly increased above critical fire weather levels. 
Thus, the Red Flag Warning will be allowed to expire on time.

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
213 AM MST Sat May 25 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Another weather system pushing our way from the
northwest will bring gusty winds and cooler temperatures to start
the new week. Weak high pressure will then bring a warming trend
the rest of the week, with temperatures climbing back into the
normal range by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The continue to see an amplified pattern across the
CONUS with a mean trough position through western states and
strong high pressure anchored over southeaster states. Our area is
in between these major features with an increasing southwesterly
flow and additional warming for today (but still a little below
average for late May).

Another strong low will approach our area over the next 28 hours,
with a breezy to windy gradient ahead of the system bringing
strong gusty winds mainly Sunday. Not quite enough to trigger a
wind advisory, but plenty of concern for critical fire weather
conditions. Please see the fire weather section below for details.

As the system lifts through the Great Basin and front range of the
Rockies early in the new week, we will be too far south for any
significant moisture/dynamics couplet. Just the gusty winds and
another round of (relatively) cooler air. We'll bottom out once
again around 10 to 15 degrees below average Monday before heights
and thicknesses slowly recover through the rest of the week.

An overall weaker flow the second half of the week as significant
jet activity retreats to higher latitudes. This will allow a
strong broad area of high pressure to spread across southern Texas
and northern Mexico. By Friday we should be approaching average
temperatures for this time of year (90s).

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 26/12Z.
SKC conditions through the forecast period. SFC wind generally less
than 12 kts through this morning. SWLY SFC wind increasing this
afternoon to 12-18 kts with gusts of 20-28 kts. The strongest wind
will be east and south of KTUS. Speeds then mainly less than 12 kts
this evening into early Sunday morning. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will continue through late next week.
Elevated winds will return this afternoon as a system passes north
of the area. 20-ft south to southwest winds will be strongest on
Sunday, with speeds of 15-30 mph and gusts of 35-40 mph. These wind
speeds will combine with relative humidity values of 10 to 15
percent, creating critical fire weather conditions across southern
portions of Fire Zones 151 and 152, mainly below 5500 feet. A Fire
Weather Watch continues in effect Sunday afternoon for these areas.
Wind speeds will decrease slightly on Monday, but will still be
breezy to locally windy especially across eastern areas with spotty
red flag conditions possible. Typical diurnal wind trends then
return on Tuesday through Friday. Below normal temperatures will
prevail through the forecast period, although temperatures will be
closer to normal late next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch Sunday afternoon for AZZ151-152.

&&

Meyer/Carpenter

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