Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
342 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071130-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
342 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2019

...Widespread Heavy Rainfall Tonight into Thursday...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Late This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Much of Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Along and South of Interstate 44.
	ONSET...After 6 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...ALong and South of Interstate 44.
	ONSET...After 6 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...South of Interstate 44 and North of a
							Line From McAlester to Fort Smith.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Far Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 9 PM.

DISCUSSION...
Rain showers with the potential for scattered thunderstorms will
continue to increase in coverage across Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas this evening and continue through the overnight
hours as a strong cold front moves into the region tonight.
Widespread rainfall amounts in the 1 to 3 inch range with
locally higher amounts of 4 to 5 plus inches will be possible
through tonight. The greater potentials for the heavy rains are
forecast to be along and south of Interstate 44 and mainly north
of a line from McAlester to Fort Smith Arkansas. These rains will
increase the potential for flash as well as mainstem river
flooding, and a flash flood watch remains in effect for most of
Eastern Oklahoma and all of Northwest Arkansas through Thursday
morning.

Also ahead of the strong cold front, elevated instability over the
region could allow for a few strong to marginally severe storms
to become possible through this evening. Locally strong winds of
60 mph and quarter size hail will be possible with the strongest
storms across parts of Eastern Oklahoma. Behind the cold front,
gusty northerly winds up toward 40 mph and much colder
temperatures are forecast to spread into the region tonight into
Thursday.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY...High Wind Potential.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...No Hazards.
SUNDAY...Winter Weather Potential.
MONDAY...Winter Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Gusty northerly winds and sharply colder temperatures will
prevail on Thursday with rains ending during the day. Additional
rainfall amounts around a half inch and locally greater will be
possible across far Southeast Oklahoma...which could continue
flooding concerns. Cool and dry weather returns Friday with a
quick warm up on Saturday.

The next strong cold front arrives late Sunday with
a low chance of a light wintry mix across far northeast
Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas Sunday night into Monday.
Temperatures are forecast to remain well below seasonal normals
for early next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
509 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2019

OKZ058-063-062345-
Delaware OK-Ottawa OK-
509 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN
OTTAWA COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CST...

At 509 PM CST, a strong thunderstorm was located near Bernice State
Park, moving east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Grove...                          Fairland...
Afton...                          Bernice...
Wyandotte...                      Cleora...
Honey Creek State Park...         Bernice State Park...
Dodge...                          Cayuga...
Twin Bridges State Park...        Zena...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 294 and 302.

LAT...LON 3652 9462 3649 9500 3675 9500 3687 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 258DEG 32KT 3666 9489

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
525 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2019

OKZ054-070000-
Osage OK-
525 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
600 PM CST...

At 524 PM CST, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles southeast of
Shidler, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Penny to nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be
possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawhuska...                       Bigheart...
Osage Hills State Park...         Pearsonia...
Sunset Lake...

LAT...LON 3658 9651 3672 9666 3698 9641 3675 9605
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 237DEG 37KT 3668 9656

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
534 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2019

OKZ060-064-070000-
Tulsa OK-Creek OK-
534 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CREEK AND WEST CENTRAL
TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CST...

At 534 PM CST, a strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles east of
Oilton, moving east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Mannford...                       Oilton...
Keystone State Park...            Silver City...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 206 and 209.

LAT...LON 3611 9659 3616 9634 3616 9620 3598 9612
      3599 9653
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 261DEG 32KT 3607 9648

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
550 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2019

OKZ054>056-070015-
Osage OK-Nowata OK-Washington OK-
550 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL OSAGE...CENTRAL
WASHINGTON AND SOUTHWESTERN NOWATA COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CST...

At 550 PM CST, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles west of
Bartlesville Municipal Airport, moving east at 30 mph.

Penny size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bartlesville...                   Dewey...
Okesa...                          Bartlesville Municipal Airport...

LAT...LON 3665 9617 3684 9617 3689 9567 3662 9567
TIME...MOT...LOC 2350Z 269DEG 28KT 3675 9608

Lacy