Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
303 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Main forecast concern is the potential for severe thunderstorms
late afternoon and into the evening across mainly parts of
northeast Oklahoma, in association with an approaching cold front.
Otherwise, the bulk of the forecast thereafter is fairly quiet.

The aforementioned cold front currently stretches across parts of
northwest Oklahoma into central Kansas. Thunderstorms have been
ongoing much of the day ahead of the front as far east as Osage
and Pawnee counties, with some relatively recent development
noted along the front itself. The highest instability values in
the area are positioned along and to the northwest of Interstate
44, and it is expected that this area will have the main potential
for any isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms through the
evening. Damaging downburst winds will be the most likely severe
threat, with the overall potential likely to decrease some with
the loss of daytime heating. Locally heavy rainfall also may
occur due to the fairly weak storm motions expected. The
thunderstorm chances will shift southeastward tonight and into
tomorrow as the front slowly pushes through the area before
eventually stalling. Although isolated storms will remain possible
during the afternoon tomorrow, the bulk of the activity should
occur in the morning.

Temperatures tomorrow will be largely dependent on how much
cloudiness and precipitation hangs around during the day.
Generally went above the blended guidance as the thinking is that
the afternoon will be largely dry with plenty of breaks in the
cloud cover.

The front will lift northward Saturday, and as that occurs, the
chance of isolated thunderstorms across parts of northwest
Arkansas is nonzero. Will not include POPs at this point due to
the expected very low coverage of anything that develops, but this
will have to be watched on future forecasts.

Above normal temperatures will prevail through the weekend and
into much of next week. The potential for a more seasonable cold
front toward the end of next week remains somewhat uncertain and
as such, will largely follow the blended guidance temperatures and
POPs for Thursday and Thursday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  87  70  91 /  90  40  10  10
FSM   73  90  71  94 /  20  40   0  10
MLC   70  88  70  93 /  50  50   0  10
BVO   66  86  65  90 /  90  10  10  10
FYV   68  84  65  87 /  50  60  10  10
BYV   69  87  64  89 /  50  60  10  10
MKO   70  87  70  91 /  70  60   0  10
MIO   68  86  66  88 /  90  20  10  10
F10   69  87  69  92 /  80  60   0  10
HHW   70  94  71  95 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

LONG TERM....22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1253 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1253 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Primarily Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 3 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 6 PM.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms will increase across northeast Oklahoma this
afternoon ahead of a slow moving cold front and spread
eastward through the evening hours. A few severe storms are
possible primarily northwest of Interstate 44, with locally
damaging wind gusts the primary hazard. The strength of
the storms will wane by late evening as they gradually
spread east and southward.  Additionally, locally heavy rainfall
will be possible primarily across northeast Oklahoma.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SATURDAY and SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible on Friday
as the weak cold front stalls across the region.  The
front will lose influence by Saturday with warm and
humid conditions prevailing through the middle of next
week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
252 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019

OKZ054-122015-
Osage OK-
252 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
315 PM CDT...

At 251 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles southeast of
Ponca City, moving east at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Southwestern Kaw Lake...

LAT...LON 3669 9706 3670 9703 3669 9700 3668 9694
      3675 9689 3674 9683 3677 9682 3655 9680
      3653 9683 3655 9693 3655 9690 3657 9689
      3660 9692 3658 9698 3659 9706 3660 9704
      3666 9706
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 275DEG 13KT 3668 9704

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
321 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019

OKZ054-122100-
Osage OK-
321 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM CDT...

At 321 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles south of Kaw
City, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Shidler...                        Burbank...
Southern Kaw Lake...              Webb City...
Apperson...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3672 9651 3652 9688 3655 9690 3658 9689
      3660 9691 3660 9693 3669 9698 3669 9693
      3672 9692 3675 9689 3674 9683 3677 9682
      3677 9679 3678 9679 3678 9675 3699 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 235DEG 21KT 3672 9687