Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
643 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Ceilings will vary from VFR to MVFR overnight tonight. A complex
of showers and thunderstorms this evening is most likely to affect
KFSM. MVFR ceilings will prevail at all sites Thursday, with
another complex of showers and storms likely to affect all sites
from late tonight until around midday Thursday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 318 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Currently keeping a close eye on the clusters of strong/severe
thunderstorms ongoing across south central OK. This activity has
developing in an area of very unstable air just ahead of a surface
front draped from southwest OK into north central OK. Available
instability drops off significantly across eastern OK, so the
storms have shown signs of weakening and becoming less organized
at they move rather slowly north and northeast. This is also
supported by recent HRRR output. Still not out of the question to
see a few storms move into parts of the area this evening, with
the best potential of any severe storms being across parts of far
southeast OK.

Short term guidance also suggests that additional
showers/thunderstorms may develop overnight near the frontal
boundary across northeast OK, with the activity shifting east
into northwest AR later tonight. Southwesterly low/mid level flow
could encourage some training of storms, so have opted to expand
the flash flood watch through the night for the entire forecast
area. Most locations saw around 2"-4" inches of rain from
yesterdays convection (with locally higher amounts of 4"-6") any
additional rainfall could result in further flooding.
Precipitation will gradually shift east and southeast by Thursday
afternoon.

By Friday, another upper wave will move from the Rockies into the
Plains by the afternoon. Chances of showers/storms will continue,
with the atmosphere remaining uncapped/weakly unstable and moist
(PWATs around 1.5"). Took a broadbrush approach for PoPs by
Friday, although these numbers may tick upward with subsequent
forecasts.

Aside from some early rain chances Saturday, the weekend is
looking mostly dry at this time. The patter becomes a bit more
active next week, with storm chances returning by Tue/Wed as
surface boundary potentially nudges into the region.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

AVIATION.....05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
453 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-021030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
453 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
    AREA...Extreme Southeastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 6 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 6 PM.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 6 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 6 PM.

DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms have developed over south-central
Oklahoma this afternoon, and these storms may build to the east
during the early evening, affecting areas mainly south of
Interstate 40. These storms will be moving into a less favorable
environment for severe weather as they move east, however wind
fields continue to support some severe threat across southeast
Oklahoma, mainly in the form of large hail. At this time the
tornado threat appears to be minimal and confined to areas close
to the Red River.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along a frontal
boundary to the northwest later tonight and move across the area
overnight. These storms will pose a limited threat of large hail
and damaging winds.

Given the recent heavy rainfall, any additional rain will make ongoing
flooding worse, and could lead to additional flash flooding.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SATURDAY through SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will persist Thursday and Friday as a moist
and unstable air-mass remains over the area. A few severe
thunderstorms will again be possible on Thursday, primarily
across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
652 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

OKZ073-020030-
Pittsburg OK-
652 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PITTSBURG COUNTY
UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 652 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Kiowa, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Mcalester...                      Krebs...
Kiowa...                          Savanna...
Alderson...                       Ashland...
Mcalester Regional Airport...     Blanco...
Pittsburg...                      Bache...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
southeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3468 9589 3468 9609 3478 9609 3497 9564
      3459 9562 3459 9588
TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 246DEG 24KT 3473 9594

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
707 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

OKZ049-020045-
Pushmataha OK-
707 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PUSHMATAHA COUNTY
UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 706 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles southwest of
Daisy, moving east at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Clayton...                        Stanley...
Snow...                           Moyers...
Kosoma...                         Dunbar...
Eubanks...                        Finley...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
southeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3450 9578 3451 9577 3451 9567 3459 9567
      3460 9552 3464 9551 3468 9533 3429 9532
      3429 9578
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 251DEG 33KT 3444 9582

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
735 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

OKZ049-073-075-020100-
Pittsburg OK-Latimer OK-Pushmataha OK-
735 PM CDT Wed May 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL PUSHMATAHA...
SOUTHWESTERN LATIMER AND SOUTHEASTERN PITTSBURG COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM
CDT...

At 735 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles east of
Blanco, moving east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Wilburton...                      Hartshorne...
Higgins...                        Damon...
Tuskahoma...                      Blanco...
Yanush...                         Haileyville...
Sardis...                         Gowen...
Dow...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
southeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3460 9577 3485 9582 3497 9524 3460 9518
TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 259DEG 31KT 3472 9562

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