Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Tulsa, OK

071 
WWUS54 KTSA 090920
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
320 AM CST SAT MAR 9 2019

OKC097-131-143-145-090930-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0006.000000T0000Z-190309T0930Z/
Rogers OK-Mayes OK-Wagoner OK-Tulsa OK-
320 AM CST SAT MAR 9 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL ROGERS...NORTHWESTERN
MAYES...NORTHWESTERN WAGONER AND EAST CENTRAL TULSA COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 330 AM CST...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small hail,
gusty winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CST for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3602 9579 3611 9593 3653 9554 3633 9517
TIME...MOT...LOC 0920Z 224DEG 50KT 3638 9545 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1152 PM CST Fri Mar 8 2019

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Varying conditions between LIFR and VFR across the CWA should
become mainly LIFR to low end MVFR overnight. At the same
time...thunderstorms are forecast to develop over Central Oklahoma
and push across the CWA with the greater timing potential being
after 09z for Northeast Oklahoma and after 11z for Northwest
Arkansas. LIFR/IFR conditions and gusty winds will be possible
within the convection. Behind the convection...conditions are
forecast to improve with gusty southwesterly winds and ceilings
lifting back to VFR. By late morning to early afternoon...strong
to gusty westerly winds and mostly clear conditions will be
possible as the dryline clears the CWA. Winds look to weaken some
toward the end of the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 941 PM CST Fri Mar 8 2019/

DISCUSSION...

Forecast was updated to insert patchy dense fog mention and issue
a dense fog advisory for Carroll and Madison counties in AR thru 6
AM. Cool and moist conditions north of the warm front across
northern AR has allowed dense fog to develop. A check of
observations around the area does suggest it is patchy though. The
latest HRRR suggests that the best fog potential will stay over
north central AR and south central MO tonight.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 752 PM CST Fri Mar 8 2019/

UPDATE...

Some minor tweaks were made to the forecast tonight. See
discussion below.

DISCUSSION...
The forecast remains on track for the most part. The warm front,
which will play a role in the severe potential late tonight into
Saturday morning, is, in a sense, pivoting at this hour. The
western portion of the front, currently aligned from NE-SW into
northern TX, is beginning to lift north in response to the
deepening surface low over eastern CO. The eastern portion of the
front is remaining quasi-stationary over southern AR. By late
tonight, the warm front may gain a NW-SE orientation as the
western portion of the front is drawn north toward the surface
low. The theme of the forecast remains the same. Storms will
develop late tonight, likely elevated to start, across NE OK.
Other storms will get going over south central OK ahead of the
Pacific front closer to 12Z and will progress across southeast OK
and into western AR thru early Saturday morning. Storms along and
south of the warm front will pose a limited tornado threat, with
large hail to 2 inches in diameter the main threat. Damaging winds
are a threat as well, even north of the front where a shallow
stable layer near the surface will exist. The tornado
probabilities on the DSP (Decision Support Page) were tweaked to
show the expected orientation of the warm front tonight. Overnight
low temp forecast was adjusted as well with some sites already
below the forecast, though they should be near their mins now with
a steady or slow rise in temps after midnight.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   50  71  35  54 /  90  50   0   0
FSM   54  74  41  60 /  90  80   0   0
MLC   54  74  40  53 /  90  50   0  10
BVO   48  67  30  53 /  90  50   0   0
FYV   49  68  34  53 /  90  90   0   0
BYV   42  68  36  54 /  90  90   0   0
MKO   51  69  38  53 /  90  60   0  10
MIO   47  67  34  52 /  90  80   0   0
F10   49  71  38  52 /  90  50   0  10
HHW   63  74  42  58 /  80  60  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for ARZ002-011.

&&

AVIATION.....20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
516 PM CST Fri Mar 8 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-091045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
516 PM CST Fri Mar 8 2019

...SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Mainly south of Interstate 40.
	ONSET...After 2 AM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 2 AM.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...South of I-44.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 2 AM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 2 AM.

DISCUSSION...

There is a significant risk for severe thunderstorms late tonight
into early Saturday to the south of I-44, including much of east
central and southeast Oklahoma, as well as western Arkansas. Very
large hail to 2 inches in diameter and damaging winds to 60 mph are
the main threats. There is a limited tornado threat south of I-40,
with the greatest threat likely to be near the warm front late
tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop over central into northeast
Oklahoma after 2 AM, eventually spreading into northwest Arkansas by
6 AM. Other storms are likely to develop south of there by 5 AM
ahead of the Pacific cold front, and affect southeast Oklahoma into
west central Arkansas into early Saturday morning.

Storms should be moving quickly enough to limit the flood threat.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
WEDNESDAY...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be ongoing across far eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas early Saturday morning. Most of the
activity should shift east of the area by mid to late morning. Gusty
west to southwest winds are expected behind the frontal passage,
with gusts 35 to 40 mph possible across northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas. The strong winds, combined with the warm and dry
conditions will raise fire weather concerns for Saturday afternoon.

Another strong upper system will impact the region in the Tuesday to
Wednesday time frame. Some severe weather will be possible, although
the main concern should be locally heavy rainfall.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
156 AM CST SAT MAR 9 2019

OKZ064>066-090845-
Okmulgee OK-Okfuskee OK-Creek OK-
156 AM CST SAT MAR 9 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CREEK...NORTHWESTERN
OKMULGEE AND NORTHWESTERN OKFUSKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 245 AM CST...

At 156 AM CST, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles southeast of
Stroud, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 45 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bristow...                        Mounds...
Kellyville...                     Depew...
Slick...                          Milfay...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 178 and 209.

LAT...LON 3577 9662 3608 9624 3608 9621 3587 9603
      3586 9603 3554 9658 3559 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 0756Z 234DEG 42KT 3567 9657

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
224 AM CST SAT MAR 9 2019

OKZ060-061-064-067-090915-
Tulsa OK-Rogers OK-Creek OK-Wagoner OK-
224 AM CST SAT MAR 9 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ROGERS...
NORTHEASTERN CREEK...NORTHWESTERN WAGONER AND TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL
315 AM CST...

At 224 AM CST, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles west of
Kiefer, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Broken Arrow...
Sand Springs...                   Claremore...
Owasso...                         Bixby...
Sapulpa...                        Jenks...
Glenpool...                       Coweta...
Skiatook...                       Catoosa...
Collinsville...                   Verdigris...
Inola...                          Kiefer...
Sperry...                         Mounds...
Kellyville...                     Jenks Riverside Airport...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 203 and 246.

LAT...LON 3617 9544 3615 9544 3585 9607 3586 9615
      3598 9627 3616 9611 3617 9600 3629 9600
      3642 9589
TIME...MOT...LOC 0824Z 234DEG 49KT 3593 9613