Severe Thunderstorm Warning 349, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
649 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Cloud cover will continue to increase from west to east over the
next few hours as a cold front approaches the CWA. Thunderstorms
are expected to develop along/near the boundary and move into the
CWA over the next couple of hours and push through the CWA with
the movement of the front. Will continue with VCTS and Tempo
groups for timing of the greatest thunderstorm coverage. Strong
winds...periods of MVFR conditions and possible severe weather
will be possible within the thunderstorms. Storms look to clear
Western Arkansas by 12z with clearing skies and west to
northwesterly winds behind the front. During the day
Monday...mostly clear skies and gusty west to northwesterly winds
are forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 340 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Sfc pressure falls continue to intensify this afternoon across
western OK ahead of the impressive wave currently moving into
central CO. Deeper low level moisture is currently just south of
Interstate 20 corridor through central / eastern TX and will
continue to drawn northward ahead of the advancing cold front.
Data has remained consistent for several days in developing
impressive wind fields across the region tonight including strong
shear within the lowest levels. The larger uncertainty has been
the northward extent of the deeper moisture and the resultant
impacts on instability profiles. Trends within the past 24hrs have
been for a more northward surge of moisture through eastern OK /
western AR before the cold front passes. Fcst soundings offer
differing levels of sfc based inhibition, however a consistent
idea is that any remaining inhibition should remain rather
shallow. Given the strong synoptic scale forcing overspreading the
area tonight, pattern evolution supports an increased risk of
severe storms beginning early evening across central OK and
quickly spreading eastward through the evening. Any sustained
cellular storms early in the evening are likely to become
supercells with a large hail / wind threat. Evolution into broken
line segments is likely with time as forcing further intensifies.
The strengthening low level wind fields will continue to support
locally damaging wind potential as well as quickly evolving small
scale circulations. The event should remain rather progressive
with the cold front clearing western AR well before sunrise
Monday.

Breezy winds will follow the cold front with only a minor cool
down Monday into Tuesday. The pattern evolution by late week
differs amongst extended data w/ GFS progressive and the ECMWF
developing a closed low over the southern Plains. An uptick in
late week precip chances will accompany either scenario with the
duration of the rain chances into next weekend the larger
uncertainty. The associated cold front does look rather strong
with a notable cool down likely for late in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   50  69  42  68 /  90   0   0   0
FSM   54  69  43  68 / 100   0   0   0
MLC   51  70  42  69 / 100   0   0   0
BVO   46  68  39  69 /  70   0   0   0
FYV   49  65  39  63 / 100   0   0   0
BYV   52  67  42  64 / 100   0   0   0
MKO   49  66  41  67 / 100   0   0   0
MIO   48  65  40  65 / 100   0   0   0
F10   49  68  42  69 / 100   0   0   0
HHW   54  71  44  70 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
501 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
501 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

...SEVERE STORMS LIKELY TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Mainly southeast of I-44...greatest threat along and south
			of I-40.
	ONSET...After 9 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Much of Eastern Oklahoma and all of Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 9 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Along and southeast of I-44.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Along and southeast of I-44.
	ONSET...After 9 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Along and southeast of I-44.
	ONSET...After 9 PM.

DISCUSSION...

There is a significant risk of severe storms and an elevated
tornado risk to the southeast of I-44, and especially along and
south of I-40 from around 9 PM tonight to 4 AM Monday.

Storms will develop early this evening from northeast Oklahoma
through south central Oklahoma.  These storms will quickly spread
eastward while also increasing in coverage.  Instability will
initially be low, however conditions are likely to become somewhat
more unstable through the overnight hours ahead of the advancing
cold front. Recent data suggests that discrete rotating storms
could also form ahead of the main frontal convective band from
southeast Oklahoma up into western Arkansas. Storms are likely to
develop into one or more line segments with time and pose a
damaging wind and large hail risk. Also, the risk of tornadoes
will exist, some of which may be quickly developing circulations
along the thunderstorm line segments. The largest uncertainty
remains the degree of instability which can be maintained
overnight. Should conditions become unstable near the surface then
the tornado potential could increase further. This would be most
likely across portions of southeast Oklahoma into west central
Arkansas. Locally heavy rainfall will also be a concern especially
where storms track over the same areas. Storms will be moving
fast so repeated storm paths will be needed to cause any flooding
concerns. The cold front will sweep through western Arkansas and
storms will exit the region to the east by around 4 AM Monday,
ending the severe weather threat.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY and TUESDAY...No Hazards.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Hind Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY and SATURDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

The next storm system and cold front will bring a chance for
storms Wednesday night into Thursday. Instability will be lacking
with this system, thus the coverage and intensity of storms will
be low.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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