Severe Thunderstorm Warning 332, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1249 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Cold front will continue to push across the CWA this afternoon and
evening with scattered convection ahead of the front and a broken
line of convection along the front. Have used VCTS and tempo
groups for timing with it reaching TUL/RVS at the start of the
period and into FSM around 00z. Within the convection MVFR
conditions will be possible. Behind the front...gusty west to
northwesterly winds and continued IFR/MVFR ceilings should spread
over the CWA into the evening hours. A period of convection will
also remain possible behind the front...with more scattered rain
showers remaining possible through the overnight/early morning
hours. During the morning hours Friday...MVFR ceilings look to
begin lifting back to VFR and scattering out from west to east
with winds beginning to weaken.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1100 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
At mid morning...scattered convection continued across parts of
Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas within an area warm
advection ahead of the strong cold front currently moving into
Osage county of Northeast Oklahoma. The ongoing convection was
more elevated as the surface instability axis resided along and
ahead of the cold front and west of the current convection. Small
hail and gusty winds will remain possible with the ongoing
activity through the late morning hours.

Through this afternoon...the cold front will continue to slide
southeast across the CWA...reaching just south of much of the
Interstate 44 corridor around 18z and into into Southeast
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas around 20-22z. Ahead of the
front...scattered convection is expected to remain possible over
far Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas...while additional
thunderstorms are forecast to initiate along the boundary across
Northeast Oklahoma and spread through the region.

Instability out ahead of the front will allow for severe
potentials to become possible with large hail and damaging winds
being the main threats into the evening hours. A limited tornado
potential will also be possible into the early evening hours with
any storm that can remain more discrete ahead of the front and
also along the boundary if shear vectors can remain more
perpendicular to the front. The greater severe potentials look to
be along and south of Interstate 44 in Eastern Oklahoma and also
across Northwest Arkansas. Periods of heavy rainfall will also be
possible through tonight with the convection...with widespread
1-3+ inches possible across East Central/Southeast Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas. Lesser amounts up toward one inch will be
possible for much of Northeast Oklahoma. For now have held off on
a possible flash flood watch...though conditions will be closely
monitored.

Behind the cold front...gusty west to northwesterly winds in the
20 to 30 mph range along with quickly falling temps are forecast
to spread over the region through this evening. High temperatures
in the 70s should be realized across much of Northeast Oklahoma
over the next couple of hours...while a more diurnal temp curve
should be possible for Southeast Oklahoma into West Central
Arkansas. By 00z...temps look to range from the 50s along the
Kansas border to near 80 degrees along the Red River.

For the morning update...have adjusted hourly
pop/wx/temp/dewpoint grids to account for the fast movement of the
cold front then originally forecast and the mentioned above. Also
have added minor tweaks to hourly wind grids based on latest
trends and observations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   40  53  34  65 /  70  10   0   0
FSM   50  56  35  65 / 100  70   0   0
MLC   45  54  34  65 / 100  40   0   0
BVO   39  51  30  64 /  50  10   0   0
FYV   43  49  31  60 / 100  70   0   0
BYV   45  50  32  63 / 100  70   0   0
MKO   42  53  34  64 /  90  40   0   0
MIO   40  50  32  61 /  80  30   0   0
F10   41  53  34  65 /  80  20   0   0
HHW   46  56  35  65 / 100  70   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....20

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