Severe Thunderstorm Warning 287, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
901 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorms continue to develop in the vicinity of the
cold front that is advancing into northeast Oklahoma at this
hour. The front is currently near a Copan to Red Rock line.
The airmass just in advance of the cold front is still uncapped
with surface based cape running in the vicinity of 5000 J/kg.
Still the potential for a tornado over the next hour or so across
northeast Oklahoma if any of the discrete cells can stay rooted
along the surface boundary. As the cap strengthens over the next
few hours the activity will become more elevated as the cold front
spreads south. Still expecting a cluster of storms to develop overnight
across southern portions of the area as the low level jet increases.

Have made some adjustments to pops for Tonight to reflect current
trends in short-term model guidance.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
452 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-271015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
452 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 6 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Generally along and north of a line from
           McAlester Oklahoma to Fort Smith Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 6 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Along and north of Interstate 40.
	ONSET...After 9 PM.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
    ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Hot and humid conditions continue late this afternoon with
dangerous heat index values for much of eastern Oklahoma
and west central Arkansas into the evening. Please follow
heat safety rules if you must be outside this afternoon and
early evening.

Storms will develop or spread into northeast Oklahoma by early
evening associated with an approaching cold front. Strong
instability and sufficient wind shear will support the risk
for severe weather.  Damaging winds and large hail will be
possible with the initial storms during the evening. The
initial storms may also pose a limited risk of tornadoes, mainly
across northeast Oklahoma.  Storms will expand in coverage
through the evening hours with the severe weather hazard
transitioning toward localized damaging winds by late evening
and overnight. The severe weather coverage will gradually wane
during the early morning hours on Tuesday.

Additionally, locally heavy rainfall is likely and may result
in flooding concerns for portions of eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas that have received recent excessive rains.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY...No Hazards.
FRIDAY through SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Storms may be ongoing early Tuesday with the focus pushing
into southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. Additional
storms may develop Tuesday night into early Wednesday as the
cold front makes only slow progress southward. The continued
chances for showers and storms will raise the potential for
additional heavy rainfall and associated flooding concerns.
A brief dry period is forecast for later this week with
thunderstorm chances returning next weekend.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
705 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

OKZ054-270045-
Osage OK-
705 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
745 PM CDT...

At 705 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Grainola,
moving east at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Grainola...                       Foraker...
Pearsonia...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3697 9638 3671 9648 3684 9676 3685 9675
      3698 9669
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 287DEG 13KT 3691 9668

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
801 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

OKZ054-270145-
Osage OK-
801 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
845 PM CDT...

At 800 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles southeast of
Pearsonia, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawhuska...                       Barnsdall...
Osage Hills State Park...         Pearsonia...
Okesa...                          Sunset Lake...
Pershing...                       Nelagoney...
Tallant...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3673 9652 3688 9642 3678 9604 3650 9621
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 293DEG 13KT 3676 9641

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
846 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0837 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SE PAWHUSKA           36.65N 96.31W
08/26/2019  M62 MPH          OSAGE              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA ESTIMATES A 62MPH WIND GUST 2 MILES SE OF
            PAWHUSKA.

&&

SNIDER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
857 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

OKZ056-057-061-270245-
Craig OK-Rogers OK-Nowata OK-
857 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CRAIG...NORTHEASTERN
ROGERS AND SOUTHERN NOWATA COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

At 856 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles northwest of
New Alluwe, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Vinita...                         Nowata...
Chelsea...                        Talala...
Big Cabin...                      New Alluwe...
Watova...                         White Oak...
Bushyhead...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 276 and 284.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3659 9508 3651 9532 3651 9543 3647 9544
      3640 9564 3663 9578 3679 9536
TIME...MOT...LOC 0156Z 304DEG 15KT 3665 9553

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
859 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SE PAWHUSKA           36.64N 96.30W
08/26/2019  M70 MPH          OSAGE              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WIND GUST MEASURED TO 70MPH ALONG HIGHWAY 11 SE OF
            PAWHUSKA.

&&

SNIDER