Severe Thunderstorm Warning 267, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1150 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Limited potential for convection between 11-15z across KBVO.
Outside of thunderstorms and the remaining sites, VFR TAF
elements will prevail through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 940 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Ongoing storms across western OK continue to weaken and are not
likely to make it into the forecast area overnight. Additional
isolated storms have recently developed over SE KS and this area
may gradually expand in coverage downstream of smaller complex
currently across western KS. The southward extent of storms
through the overnight hours is uncertain thus only low precip
chances mentioned. Warm overnight lows continue with heat advisory
for Sunday continuing to appear warranted.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ049-053>057-
     059>062-064>067-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ019-029.

&&

AVIATION.....23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
500 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
500 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This Evening.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing...improving after sunset.

DISCUSSION...
Dangerous heat is ongoing across much of eastern Oklahoma
and west central Arkansas this afternoon.  Heat will gradually
subside after sunset.

Thunderstorm chances will remain across northeast Oklahoma
and far northwest Arkansas this evening through the overnight
hours.  Any storms which do spread into the region will pose a
limited risk of damaging winds.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY through WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm and Dangerous Heat Potential.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Dangerous heat is expected to persist into early next week as a
ridge of high pressure aloft builds over the region. Afternoon
heat indices between 105 and 110 degrees will be common over much
of the region through Wednesday.

Storm chances will persist on Sunday primarily across
northeast Oklahoma through northwest Arkansas.  Winds aloft coupled
with strong afternoon instability will be sufficient for a few
severe storms Sunday afternoon and evening.  Daily thunderstorm chances
will persist through much of next week, with slightly cooler temperatures
expected for the latter part of the work week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
309 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

OKZ054>056-180845-
Osage OK-Nowata OK-Washington OK-
309 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN OSAGE...WASHINGTON
AND WESTERN NOWATA COUNTIES UNTIL 345 AM CDT...

At 308 AM CDT, an outflow boundary was located near Bigheart, moving
southeast at 40 to 50 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this outflow
boundary as it moves through.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bartlesville...                   Pawhuska...
Dewey...                          Barnsdall...
South Coffeyville...              Copan...
Ramona...                         Wynona...
Ochelata...                       Avant...
Lenapah...                        Wann...
Elgin...                          Foraker...
Bigheart...                       Bartlesville Municipal Airport...
Osage Hills State Park...         Pearsonia...
Hulah...                          Sunset Lake...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3700 9555 3643 9590 3651 9667 3700 9654
TIME...MOT...LOC 0808Z 310DEG 45KT 3682 9618

Lacy

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