Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
610 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR TAF elements to prevail into the overnight hours
across most sites. Thunderstorms will begin to impact the
NE OK sites after 06z and the remainder of the E OK/NW AR sites
after 09z-10z. IFR vsbys and MVFR cigs can be expected in
thunderstorms. Activity will shift east of the NW AR sites between
12z-15z, with MVFR cigs to lift into VFR categories from west to
east in the 16z-18z time frame.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 308 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances and the attendant severe weather threat are
the main focus for the short term forecast. For this afternoon and
evening, a compact upper level low continues to move across
central KS with a sfc boundary north of the OK/KS border and a
subtle low level convergence area west of I-35 into central OK.
Storm development will remain possible in this area during the
afternoon with at least limited potential for discrete supercells
to move into parts of northeast OK through the evening, especially
closer to the border, with very large hail possible and low
tornado potential as well. Any such storms will also be slow
moving under relatively weak flow regime and thus could result in
localized flash flooding.

Later this evening storms developing over the high plains are
likely to grow into one or more clusters that will move into
eastern OK late evening and overnight and eventually northwest AR.
At this time the highest probabilities should remain north of
I-40, and these storms will mainly pose a damaging straight-line
wind threat. While heavy rainfall will remain possible, flash
flooding potential could be mitigated some by the more
progressive nature. Thunderstorms and severe weather chances
Wednesday will be contingent on what happens tonight, but current
thinking is the overnight complex will drive the effective frontal
boundary into at least southeast OK. This would be where the
majority of additional storm development would be expected.

Should see relatively dry weather later in the week with
temperatures climbing into the 90s, before thunderstorm and heavy
rain potential increase by the weekend as a well-defined
shortwave trough and frontal boundary arrive.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
456 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
456 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Portions of northeast Oklahoma mainly northwest of
           I-44.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing...although best chances will be late evening
    and overnight.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...This evening and overnight.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...This evening and overnight.

DISCUSSION...

Isolated thunderstorms have developed across portions of north
central Oklahoma late this afternoon. These storms may eventually
drift into portions of northeast Oklahoma mainly northwest of
Interstate 44. These storms will have the potential to be severe
with strong gusty winds and large hail the main concern. Any
discrete cells will pose a limited risk of tornadoes through the
evening hours, mainly near the Oklahoma...Kansas state line. In
addition, very heavy rainfall will be likely in the stronger
thunderstorms and with the slow storm motions expected, localized
flash flooding will be possible.

Thunderstorms across Kansas and other storms well to our west
should eventually develop into multiple clusters of storms and
move into eastern Oklahoma mainly after midnight.  These storms are
expected to sweep east into northwest Arkansas late tonight. Strong
damaging winds and heavy rainfall will be the main concern, with the
greatest threat for severe weather across northeast Oklahoma.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Dangerous
Heat Potential.
SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms could still be ongoing across portions of far eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas Wednesday morning. Additional
thunderstorms will develop Wednesday afternoon and continue into
Wednesday night in the vicinity of a cold front across southeast
Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas. These storms will have the
potential to be strong to severe with strong gusty winds, large hail
and heavy rainfall possible.

The next significant chance of showers and thunderstorms will
come over the weekend and into early next week as a slow moving
storm system affects the region. Some of these storms could
be severe. Heavy rainfall will also be possible.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
714 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

OKZ054-190100-
Osage OK-
714 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
800 PM CDT...

At 713 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles east of Kaw
Lake, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Shidler...                        Burbank...
Grainola...                       Foraker...
Pearsonia...                      Eastern Kaw Lake...
Webb City...                      Apperson...

LAT...LON 3666 9637 3670 9682 3675 9683 3676 9682
      3677 9682 3677 9679 3678 9679 3678 9675
      3691 9675 3699 9644
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 261DEG 20KT 3679 9677

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
740 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 PM     HAIL             SHIDLER                 36.78N 96.66W
06/18/2019  E0.88 INCH       OSAGE              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
745 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 PM     HAIL             SHIDLER                 36.78N 96.66W
06/18/2019  E1.75 INCH       OSAGE              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOLF BALL HAIL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF SHIDLER.

&&

BLH