Severe Thunderstorm Warning 198, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1136 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

Main aviation concerns for the next 24 hours concentrated on
approaching MCS and its evolution. Expect that the MCS will be on
the decline as it moves through much of eastern Oklahoma, although
there is a nonzero chance that it could hold together long enough
intensity-wise to cause severe gusts at the E OK terminals.
Confidence in that is very low and certainly too low to put in the
TAFs at this time. Will continue the earlier mention of TSRA with
MVFR conditions in TEMPO groups at all terminals early in the
period. Will continue to pinpoint MLC/FSM for the greatest chance
of seeing additional development tomorrow afternoon/evening,
although the potential is nonzero at the remaining terminals as
well.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 947 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Bowing thunderstorm complex currently across southwestern
OK will continue to track east overnight, eventually
impacting portions of eastern OK mainly after midnight.
In addition, nearly stationary severe convection continues
to be absorbed by the northern end of the bow, and recent
CAMs output suggests isolated development will be possible
into parts of northeast OK prior to 06z. Main severe threat
through the overnight hours will be damaging wind gusts along
with large hail.

Given the high precip chances overnight along with wet ground
conditions, have opted for a flash flood watch for much of
eastern OK the remainder of the night. This may need to be
expanded in coverage/time later tonight.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Sunday for OKZ054>068-070-071-
     073.

AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
455 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
455 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma northwest of I-44.
	ONSET...After 7 pm.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 7 pm.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 7 pm.

Flash FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 7 pm.

DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening
over north central and northeastern Oklahoma. Strong instability and
moderate wind shear will support some severe weather potential with
this activity, primarily large hail and damaging wind. There will be
a very limited risk of a tornado this evening with the initial
development across parts of northeast Oklahoma.

In addition, ongoing thunderstorms over West Texas will organize
into a complex of storms as they move east across Oklahoma. These
storms will likely begin to affect the area around midnight. The
greatest threat from these storms will be damaging wind and heavy
rainfall as they move across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY and TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
The forecast for the upcoming week remains largely unsettled with
daily thunderstorm chances. The exact details will fluctuate from
day to day, however sufficient instability and high amounts of low
level moisture will support both the potential for severe weather and
areas of heavy rainfall. Areas of repeated heavy rains will become
increasingly likely for flooding concerns, and this will become more
clear as the week progresses.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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