River Flood Warning 104, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
641 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Periodic showers and thunderstorms will continue for southeast
Oklahoma through western Arkansas for a few more hours this
evening, possibly lingering after midnight. Mainly dry conditions
are expected for the northeast OK terminals with MVFR ceilings
continuing overnight. For the rest of the sites, occasional MVFR
ceilings will occur within the heaviest bands of storms this
evening. Clouds will clear by mid morning Friday across eastern
Oklahoma and by mid day for western Arkansas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 325 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019/

DISCUSSION...

The main forecast concerns are mainly in the first 48 hours of the
forecast. Severe weather and heavy rain/flooding potential thru
tonight and frost/freeze potential Friday night into Saturday are
the main items of mention.

A strong cold front, in association with a large and powerful
upper level storm system moving east across the country, is moving
across eastern Oklahoma this afternoon. The front has cleared
Tulsa, and the severe tstorm watch in effect for Tulsa will be
dropped soon. Strong to severe storms will remain possible along
and especially ahead of the front thru evening with an unstable
and sheared airmass in place. Tornado potential will be limited by
weakening low level shear thru the afternoon. Damaging winds and
large hail are the main threats. An increase in post-frontal
showers and storms is expected overnight as isentropic lift
increases behind the front across eastern OK/western AR. Based on
the latest QPF forecast, which takes into account the potential
for multiple rounds of heavy rain producing storms across SE OK
into NW AR, a flash flood watch was issued thru tonight. Rain
chances will taper off fairly quickly from west to east after 12Z
Friday.

Much colder temps will filter into the region behind the front
tonight. Combine this with the winds, and you get wind chills in
the 30s and even some upper 20s by tomorrow morning. Skies will
clear by Friday night and winds will get light with surface high
pressure nearby. This will allow temps to crater and several areas
will get near or below freezing by Saturday morning. As a result,
a freeze watch has been issued for NE OK, a portion of SE OK, and
far NW AR.

The forecast is largely quiet past the potential freeze Saturday
morning. A band of warm advection generated showers and storms
will spread across the Arklatex Saturday night into Sunday but
this activity should stay south. There will be a chance of storms
again early next week ahead of another front. The best chances
will be in the east/southeast.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   40  53  34  65 /  70  10   0   0
FSM   46  56  36  65 / 100  70   0   0
MLC   41  55  32  65 /  90  40   0   0
BVO   39  52  28  64 /  50  10   0   0
FYV   40  49  29  60 / 100  70   0   0
BYV   41  51  32  63 / 100  70   0   0
MKO   41  53  33  64 /  90  40   0   0
MIO   39  50  32  61 /  80  30   0   0
F10   40  54  33  65 /  80  20   0   0
HHW   45  57  35  65 / 100  70   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
     OKZ054>071-073.

     Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for OKZ049-053-058-062-
     063-065>076.

AR...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
     ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

AVIATION.....06

CORFIDI

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
455 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
455 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast of a line from Jay Oklahoma to McAlester Oklahoma
	ONSET...Ongoing...ending by late evening.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Southeast of a line from Jay Oklahoma to McAlester Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing...ending by late evening.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Widespread storms are ongoing late this afternoon from far northeast
Oklahoma southward into southeast Oklahoma.  These storms are along
and in advance of strong cold front which will continue to surge
eastward during the evening hours. Scattered severe storms are ongoing
across the region with locally large hail and damaging winds the primary
concern.  Low level winds also remain sufficiently sheared to support
a limited risk of tornadoes. The risk of severe weather will end from west
to east associated with the passing cold front.  Additionally, areas
of heavy rainfall have already fallen this afternoon for isolate locations.
The potential for flash flooding will remain into the overnight hours
as additional storms redevelop from southeast Oklahoma into western
Arkansas after the cold front has passed.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY and SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY and TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Gusty northerly winds and sharply cooler temperatures will prevail on
Friday. The next chance of thunderstorms arrives early next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
717 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019

OKZ057-062-063-110100-
Craig OK-Delaware OK-Mayes OK-
717 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CRAIG...NORTHWESTERN
DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MAYES COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

At 717 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles southeast of
Adair, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Grove...                          Langley...
Adair...                          Bernice...
Ketchum...                        Disney...
Pensacola...                      Cherokee State Park...
Bernice State Park...             Cleora...
Honey Creek State Park...         Strang...
Disney Little Blue State Park...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 289 and 293.

LAT...LON 3670 9500 3667 9500 3667 9495 3656 9476
      3630 9525 3635 9533 3672 9503
TIME...MOT...LOC 0017Z 223DEG 39KT 3637 9523

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
729 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0727 PM     HAIL             MUSKOGEE                35.75N 95.37W
10/10/2019  E0.88 INCH       MUSKOGEE           OK   PUBLIC

&&

JDS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
740 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019

OKZ049-110115-
Pushmataha OK-
740 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PUSHMATAHA COUNTY
UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

At 740 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 5 miles southeast of Nashoba to 5 miles north of
Oleta. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Rattan...                         Oleta...
Cloudy...                         Corinne...
Sobol...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
southeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3416 9548 3447 9515 3447 9505 3425 9505
      3424 9515 3416 9515
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 273DEG 30KT 3442 9516 3427 9537

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
742 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     TSTM WND GST     CECIL                   35.44N 93.94W
10/10/2019  E65 MPH          FRANKLIN           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SPOTTER REPORTED THUNDERSTORM WINDS OF 60 TO 65 MPH WITH
            SMALL LIMBS BROKEN OUT OF LIVE TREES.

&&

JDS

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