River Flood Warning 102, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
611 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2019

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue along/north of
US 412 for a few more hours, with an overall southward shift
through the morning. MVFR to IFR conditions likely to accompany
storms. Additional showers and storms will develop through the
afternoon as a cold front presently near I-40 begins to surge
south, with most favored area for storms trending into SE OK.
Period of gusty north winds this afternoon and evening with winds
decreasing and flight conditions improving.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 257 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Clusters of storms are currently ongoing across northeast OK into
northwest AR, along/north of an elevated front within a zone of
rather impressive isentropic lift. Pockets of heavy rain can be
expected into the morning hours, and a few of the stronger storms
may produce some small hail. The better chances for storms will
shift farther south this afternoon as the cold front surges
southeast. Expect a large range in temperatures today, with highs
holding in the 60s across northeast OK to readings pushing 90 near
the Red River.

Partial clearing will allow temperatures to fall into the 40s
across much of the area by Monday morning, with some upper 30s
possible in northwest AR Tuesday morning as the surface high
settles over the region.

ECMWF/GFS remain in reasonable agreement bringing a strong cold
front through the area Thursday night into Friday (with the GFS
being just a bit faster). Shower and thunderstorm chances will be
on the increase during this period, with a good shot of colder air
Friday and into the weekend. Expect some lows in the 30s by
Saturday morning, especially in the valleys areas of northwest AR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  46  72  47 /  60  20   0   0
FSM   79  53  75  48 /  70  60   0   0
MLC   76  52  73  46 /  60  50   0   0
BVO   65  43  71  40 /  50  10   0   0
FYV   67  46  68  39 /  70  50   0   0
BYV   64  46  70  45 /  80  50   0   0
MKO   70  49  71  45 /  60  30   0   0
MIO   64  44  70  43 /  60  20   0   0
F10   67  49  72  46 /  60  30   0   0
HHW   88  56  74  48 /  70  70  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....14

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
452 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
452 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2019

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Afternoon.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue
through the morning across northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. The severe weather threat with these storms remains very
low, however areas of heavy rainfall are likely as some training
of cells is likely.

During the afternoon, a cold front currently located over east
central Oklahoma and west central Arkansas will begin to push
south. Additional storms are expected along the front this
afternoon, with a limited threat of large hail and damaging wind
gusts, along with locally heavy rainfall. Rain and thunderstorms
will diminish tonight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY through TUESDAY...No Hazards.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Quiet weather with seasonable temperatures is expected early in
the week. Another strong cold front will lead to the next chance of
thunderstorms and heavy rainfall by the latter half of next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
716 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BENTONVILLE             36.37N 94.21W
10/06/2019                   BENTON             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEACH ORCHARD ROAD CLOSED FROM 12TH STREET TO ANGEL
            FALLS. REPORT RECEIVED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA POST.

0625 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NW SPRINGDALE         36.22N 94.17W
10/06/2019                   BENTON             AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ROAD CLOSED NEAR 56TH STREET AND WAGON WHEEL. REPORT AND
            PHOTO RECEIVED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

KAH