River Flood Advisory 5, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
441 AM CST Fri Jan 11 2019

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

Rain will continue to increase across especially northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through the morning, persisting
at all terminals from late morning through the rest of the valid
TAF period. Conditions will initially start VFR, lowering to MVFR
mid to late morning, and IFR this afternoon in NE OK and this
evening in NW AR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 301 AM CST Fri Jan 11 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Upper trough, currently over the four corners region, will shift
into the central/southern plains today. In response, areas of
moderate to occasionally heavy rain will spread across a large
portion of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas today and
tonight. There is a chance that precipitation could transition
to a wintry mix over far northeast Oklahoma tonight closer to the
main upper low. In addition, higher terrain areas of northwest
Arkansas could see a period of light freezing rain overnight into
Saturday morning as temperatures hover in the lower 30s.

Main impact overall will be the potential for heavy rainfall.
Widespread 1 to 2 inch totals are expected across NE OK/NW AR
with locally higher amounts. Given the already saturated soil
conditions, some low lying areas could experience some minor
flooding. In addition, river flooding may become a concern, mainly
along the Grand-Neosho at Commerce and in the Illinois river
basin. System will begin to shift northeast of the region on
Saturday with the potential for some lingering light drizzle
Saturday afternoon/evening.

Behind depart system, cold/breezy conditions will persist on Sunday
with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Surface high will build
into the area by Monday morning before shifting east with warmer
weather on Tuesday. Another cold front will move into northeast
Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas Wednesday into Wednesday night keeping
temperatures near normal for the remainder of the work week.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
437 AM CST Fri Jan 11 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-121045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
437 AM CST Fri Jan 11 2019

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Morning.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This Evening.

WINTER WEATHER.
	SNOW ACCUMULATION.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Along the Kansas Border.
	ONSET...After Midnight.

	ICE ACCUMULATION.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Far Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After Midnight.

DISCUSSION...
Widespread rainfall will develop through the morning, continuing
through the afternoon and into the overnight. Locally heavy
rainfall will be possible, especially across parts of northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, which could result in isolated
flooding of low-lying areas.

In addition, some wintry precipitation will be possible tonight,
although minimal impacts are currently expected. Light snow may
mix with the rain late tonight across parts of northeast Oklahoma
along the Kansas border, with little to no accumulation expected.
Higher terrain areas of northwest Arkansas may also drop to near
freezing late tonight, allowing for a chance of freezing rain.

In parts of southeast Oklahoma, instability may increase enough to
result in isolated thunderstorms tonight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Winter Weather Potential.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Rain will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Any ongoing wintry
precipitation, including light snow potential near the Kansas
border and freezing rain potential in the higher terrain of
northwest Arkansas, would persist into Saturday morning as well.
All precipitation will taper off through the day from southwest to
northeast. Quiet weather will then persist through the rest of
the weekend and through much of next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.