Heat Advisory 2, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1223 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2019

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Steady increase in coverage of showers and storms expected through
late afternoon, before a gradually decay of convection this
evening. VFR largely expected outside of convective influence with
patchy fog again possible overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1021 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2019/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MCV currently over west central OK from overnight storm complex
will slowly work eastward aiding renewed storm development this
afternoon. A corridor of deeper moisture and persistent
low level convergence resides across SE OK where precip chances
were increased. Otherwise, scattered storms appear possible across
the entire forecast area this afternoon with downburst winds the
primary concern with any stronger storms.
Temp / dewpoint trends were adjusted slightly based on observed
trends with afternoon heat index values of 100-105 being common
outside of influence from storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  75  91  75 /  40  30  30  20
FSM   94  75  93  75 /  30  20  30  20
MLC   92  73  92  73 /  60  20  20  10
BVO   91  73  89  73 /  50  30  40  20
FYV   89  71  89  71 /  40  20  40  20
BYV   91  71  90  71 /  40  30  40  20
MKO   91  74  91  74 /  40  20  30  20
MIO   91  72  89  72 /  40  30  40  30
F10   92  73  92  73 /  50  20  20  10
HHW   90  74  92  73 /  60  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1255 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1255 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2019

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 2 PM.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Okalhoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms will steadily increase in coverage this afternoon
across much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
isolated damaging downburst winds will be the primary severe
weather concern with any of the stronger storms.  Also,
locally heavy rainfall is possible as storms will move slowly.
Storms will gradually wane after sunset.

Additionally, afternoon heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees
will be common away from the influence of any storms.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY through WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm and Dangerous Heat Potential.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Daily thunderstorm chances will continue through the middle of
next week.  The overall coverage should gradually decrease
as heat and humidity intensify.  Afternoon heat index values
around 105 degrees are likely for the first part of next
week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.