Flash Flood Watch 15, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
834 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

.DISCUSSION...
The scattered showers currently across northeast Oklahoma
in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary are expected to
fade over the next several hours. Additional thunderstorms are
expected late Tonight especially across northeast Oklahoma as a
thunderstorm complex is expected to develop across Kansas and
spread into the area. These storms will have the potential to
be strong to severe with damaging winds and large hail the
concern. Heavy rain is also a concern with 1 to 2 inches of rain
expected across portions of northeast Oklahoma late Tonight into
Sunday morning with locally higher amounts possible. Will go ahead
and issue a Flash Flood Watch for areas generally west of
Highway 75 from late Tonight through Sunday morning.

Have adjusted pops for Tonight into Sunday morning to better reflect
current trends in observations and short-term model guidance.
The remainder of the forecast for Tonight looks good.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
435 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
435 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Mainly northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After Midnight.

DISCUSSION...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to persist into the evening hours across eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas. A few of these storms could
be strong to severe with damaging winds the main concern.
Locally heavy rain will also be possible which could
lead to flooding of low lying areas.

Additional thunderstorms are likely to spread into
northeast Oklahoma later tonight, and continue eastward
across the area through Sunday morning.  These storms will
initially pose a risk of damaging winds, however the risk of
severe weather is likely to lessen as they continue eastward.
The additional rainfall will also raise flooding concerns.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Storms are likely to be ongoing Sunday morning, however the risk
of severe weather will have lessened.  The potential for locally
heavy rainfall will continue and flooding concerns will be present.
Additional widespread storms are expected to develop along a cold
front across southern Kansas Monday afternoon.  These storms will
spread southeastward Monday evening and overnight. At this
time, severe weather appears likely as the storms spread into
eastern Oklahoma. Additionally, heavy rainfall and flooding concerns
will persist.

Prior to the storms on Monday, temperatures will warm and dewpoints
will remain very high resulting in afternoon heat index values of
105 to 110 degrees.  Excessive heat advisories may be needed for
Monday afternoon.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.