Flash Flood Warning 95, NWS Tulsa, OK

762 
WGUS74 KTSA 241542
FFSTSA

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1042 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

OKC061-079-101-135-241551-
/O.EXP.KTSA.FF.W.0095.000000T0000Z-190824T1545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Haskell OK-Sequoyah OK-Le Flore OK-Muskogee OK-
1042 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN HASKELL...SOUTHEASTERN
SEQUOYAH...NORTHERN LE FLORE AND SOUTHEASTERN MUSKOGEE COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 1045 AM CDT...

The heavy rain has ended and flash flooding is no longer expected to 
pose a threat. Therefore the flash flood warning will be allowed to 
expire. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3514 9444 3520 9531 3540 9520 3536 9443

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
642 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Ongoing convection across far E OK / western AR continue to impact
flight conditions through the morning with additional scattered
development expected throughout the day. Ceilings currently vary
widely however a prevailing MVFR level is most likely w/ slow
improvement into VFR range during the afternoon. Additional storms
move into NE OK tonight w/ ceilings likely again lowering for most
terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 347 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Precipitation chances and potential for heavy rainfall and severe
weather will highlight the forecast once again this morning, with
tonight and Monday night the most active periods. Very moist
airmass remains in place with an apparent MCV continuing to
generate scattered thunderstorms over western AR and far eastern
OK. Storm complex to the west has largely dissipated but another
MCV associated with this may drift across the area later today.
Thus the threat of scattered storms remains in the forecast today
and despite fairly limited coverage, the potential for locally
excessive rainfall will be present, as evidenced by the 0.81" at
FSM in about a half hour.

Attention for tonight turns to shortwave trough moving across the
Central Rockies this morning. This will move southeast tonight to
force more widespread coverage of storms including the possibility
of a severe MCS. At this time the highest impacts in terms of
severe weather should remain to our west where max instability is
focused. Heavy rain remains a concern and a Flood Watch could be
needed for parts of the area tonight into Sunday. Storm potential
will shift to the east Sunday evening.

Hot and humid conditions return Monday ahead of the next cold
front, with very high dew points in the upper 70s to near 80
pooling ahead of the front. Heat Index values could easily reach
the 105-110 range and heat headlines will likely be needed.
Fortunately this will be short lived as the front pushes through
Monday evening. Given the high instability forecast ahead of the
front, along with strong shear by August standards, organized
severe weather will be a possibility along with yet more heavy
rainfall.

Front will continue to slowly push south with northwest flow aloft
continuing to support thunderstorm chances through Wednesday. Somewhat
drier air may push into northern areas by Wednesday thunderstorm
chances tapering off by Thursday and Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   85  71  82  73 /  40  70  60  10
FSM   84  72  86  73 /  80  20  40  20
MLC   86  71  87  74 /  20  40  30  20
BVO   83  69  80  70 /  40  80  70  10
FYV   78  67  80  69 /  50  30  50  20
BYV   78  66  81  69 /  50  20  70  20
MKO   83  69  83  72 /  30  40  60  20
MIO   80  67  78  69 /  50  50  60  20
F10   85  69  86  72 /  20  50  60  10
HHW   87  72  90  74 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
502 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
502 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Primarily northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 10 PM.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this morning and will remain
possible through the day.  Locally heavy rainfall has fallen
early Saturday morning, and there will continue to a risk of
localized higher amounts which could result in a flash flood
risk.
More widespread thunderstorms are likely to spread into
northeast Oklahoma Saturday night, and continue eastward
across the area through Sunday morning.  These storms will
initially pose a risk of damaging winds, however the risk of
severe weather is likely to lessen as they continue eastward.
The additional rainfall will also raise flooding concerns.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Storms are likely to be ongoing Sunday morning, however the risk
of severe weather will have lessened.  The potential for locally
heavy rainfall will continue and flooding concerns will be present.
Additional widespread storms are expected to develop along a cold
front across southern Kansas Monday afternoon.  These storms will
spread southeastward Monday evening and overnight.  Severe weather
currently appears likely as the storms spread into eastern Oklahoma.
Additionally, heavy rainfall and flooding concerns will persist.

Prior to the storms on Monday, temperatures will warm and dewpoints
will remain very high resulting in afternoon heat index values of
105 to 110 degrees.  Excessive heat advisories may be needed for
Monday afternoon.

Thunderstorm potential will continue Tuesday and Wednesday as
the cold front slowly pushes southward, with drier weather possible
by late next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
546 AM CDT SAT AUG 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     FLASH FLOOD      FORT SMITH              35.39N 94.40W
08/24/2019                   SEBASTIAN          AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL ROADWAYS IN FORT SMITH SHOWN FLOODED VIA SOCIAL
            MEDIA. ALSO REPORTS OF A FEW CARS STRANDED.

&&

JBM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
639 AM CDT SAT AUG 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 AM     FLASH FLOOD      FORT SMITH              35.39N 94.40W
08/24/2019                   SEBASTIAN          AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 1 FATAL *** HIGHWAY 96 AND 255 CLOSED NEAR LAVACCA.
            HIGHWAY 22 CLOSED NEAR FORT CHAFFEE. FLOOD RELATED
            FATALITY ON KINCAID AVENUE IN FORT SMITH.

&&

JBM