Flash Flood Warning 80, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
420 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Line of convection currently across Southeast Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas is expected to continue to push southward
across the CWA as the associated gust front continues to drop
south through the region. Ahead of the boundary...hot and humid
conditions combined with steep low level lapse rates and large
amounts of surface instability will allow for the potential for
locally damaging wind gusts to be possible with the convection.
Behind the convection...rain cooled air had dropped temps back
into the 70s/80s which had ended the threat for heat advisory
criteria. Thus...have cancelled the advisory north of a line from
McAlester to Poteau. As the line of storms continue to push
southward the remaining heat advisory will likely continue to be
trimmed southward.

The main cold front...currently just northwest of the CWA is
forecast to push into Northeast Oklahoma over the next few hours.
Some instability remained across Northeast Oklahoma which could
allow for a few isolated showers and storms to develop along the
front as it moves into Northeast Oklahoma. This additional
activity looks to be short lived and dissipate by mid evening.
Behind the frontal boundary...a drier airmass is forecast to
filter into the region with dewpoints back in the 60s possible
for parts of Northeast Oklahoma into far Northwest Arkansas. These
conditions will help low temperatures to fall into the upper 60s
to mid 70s from north to south by early Thursday morning.

The drier airmass is progged to continue to spread through the
region Thursday with high temperatures in the upper 80s/lower 90s
forecast from north to south. These conditions should continue
Friday as well before a ridge of high pressure moves back over the
region. Conditions for the weekend look to be closer to the
seasonal average.

In the extended forecast...latest model solutions continue to
indicate the tropical system currently over the Northern Gulf of
Mexico to lift into the Southern Plains and approach the CWA
Sunday through Monday night. There remains much uncertainty with
where this system makes landfall and the track it takes into the
Southern Plains. Have sided closer to the ECMWF for this forecast
with the low lifting into Western Arkansas Monday morning and
exiting by Tuesday morning. In response...have continued with
chance pops across the eastern half of the CWA for this time
period. The greater lightning potential could be ahead of the main
system with lesser potential underneath the low as it moves
through the CWA. Heavy rainfall also will be possible with this
system with the greater potential across Southeast Oklahoma into
Western Arkansas. Depending on the exact track of this system will
decide where the heavy rain axis sets up. Continue to monitor
latest forecasts as the potential for heavy rainfall as well as
flash/river flooding could become possible Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  90  67  90 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   75  93  69  92 /  20   0   0   0
MLC   74  91  67  90 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   69  88  63  89 /  20   0   0   0
FYV   69  88  62  87 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   68  88  64  88 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   72  89  65  89 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   69  88  63  88 /  20   0   0   0
F10   72  89  65  89 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   75  93  70  92 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-073-075-
     076.

AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1252 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1252 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well
as much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms will continue to track south and southeast
across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this afternoon.
A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible with damaging
winds being the primary threat. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible as well. The threat will diminish by early evening.

Outside of the thunderstorm activity, dangerous heat and humidity
will continue this afternoon with heat indices in the 105 to 110
degree range. A heat advisory is in effect for eastern Oklahoma
and west-central Arkansas through 8 PM this evening.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A developing tropical system currently in the northern Gulf of
Mexico will approach the upper Texas or Louisiana coast this
weekend. This system is forecast to lift north, potentially
impacting portions of the area Monday into Tuesday. Although the
exact track is still uncertain, very heavy rainfall is expected
along and east of the low track. At this time, the best chance for
rainfall is across far southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Persons should continue to monitor the latest forecast into early
next week concerning the eventual track of the tropical system
and any potential heavy rainfall threat.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
340 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 S EUFAULA             35.27N 95.58W
07/10/2019  M72 MPH          MCINTOSH           OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTS A GUST OF 72MPH OVER LAKE EUFAULA
            ON HWY 9.

&&

TDS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
345 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

OKZ049-073-075-076-102130-
Pittsburg OK-Latimer OK-Pushmataha OK-Le Flore OK-
345 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN PUSHMATAHA...SOUTHERN
LATIMER...SOUTHERN LE FLORE AND SOUTHERN PITTSBURG COUNTIES UNTIL 430
PM CDT...

At 345 PM CDT, the leading edge of strong thunderstorm winds were
located along a line extending from 6 miles southwest of Morgan
Springs to 8 miles south of Lake Wister State Park to 5 miles west
of Bengal to 3 miles northeast of Haywood. Movement was southeast at
35 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms and
will occur well ahead of the rain.

Locations in or near the path include...
Mcalester...                      Wilburton...
Clayton...                        Heavener...
Hartshorne...                     Krebs...
Talihina...                       Savanna...
Alderson...                       Albion...
Octavia...                        Talimena State Park...
Higgins...                        Tuskahoma...
Big Cedar...                      Kiamichi...
Whitesboro...                     Damon...
Bengal...                         Yanush...

LAT...LON 3461 9579 3495 9595 3491 9518 3486 9480
      3492 9445 3462 9446 3451 9447 3451 9493
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 333DEG 29KT 3485 9443 3481 9476 3485 9515 3492
9591

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
414 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W ALMA                35.48N 94.24W
07/10/2019                   CRAWFORD           AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE POWERLINES DOWN ON ALMA HIGHWAY NEAR KIBLER

&&

TDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
417 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S FORT SMITH          35.31N 94.40W
07/10/2019                   SEBASTIAN          AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWERLINE DOWN ON SOUTH 28TH PLACE

&&

TDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
420 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0303 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ESE FORT SMITH        35.37N 94.35W
07/10/2019                   SEBASTIAN          AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE FELL AND BLOCKED THE ROAD AT 7213 SOUTH T STREET.
            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR

&&

TDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
424 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0303 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S FORT SMITH          35.37N 94.40W
07/10/2019                   SEBASTIAN          AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            A TREE FELL ON DODSON AVE BETWEEN OLD GREENDWOOD ROAD AND
            SOUTH GREENWOOD ROAD

&&

TDS