Flash Flood Warning 73, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
550 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered areas of IFR cigs will impact the eastern OK sites
this morning and may move into parts of western AR as well.
Expect improvement by late morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 412 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Early this morning...the surface cold front stretched from
Southwest Oklahoma to just west of Osage county in Northeast
Oklahoma to Northeast Kansas. Some scattered showers/storms
remained along the boundary in Southeast Kansas...underneath the
upper level low pressure system currently pushing through Eastern
Kansas. Otherwise...just about all the rest of the ongoing
showers/storms ahead of the boundary had pushed off to the east
out of Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Thus...have
canceled the remaining portion of the flash flood watch a few
hours early.

Through this afternoon...the cold front will continue to slide
through the CWA with clearing conditions expected from northwest
to southeast behind the boundary. There remains a slight chance
that some of the precip in Southeast Kansas may clip the northeast
corner of Oklahoma and will thus carry a slight chance pop through
mid morning for this area. With the clearing
conditions...afternoon temperatures should be able to get back
into the low/mid 80s for most locations.

Overnight tonight...an upper level impulse looks to push eastward
across Northern Texas and into the ArkLaTex within a more zonal
upper level flow. In response...a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms will become possible overnight tonight into Tuesday
across mainly Southeast Oklahoma/Western Arkansas. Rainfall
amounts look to be much lighter with this impulse. This precip
looks to exit the region by Tuesday evening...ahead of additional
thunderstorm chances possible Tuesday night/Wednesday morning from
a potential weakening MCS approaching the region from the
northwest. Latest model solutions continue to indicate different
tracks with the possible complex and will thus continue with
slight chances across the northern part of the CWA.

A ridge of high pressure is progged to begin building back into
the Plains Wednesday and continuing through the end of the week.
This will allow for temperatures more closer to the seasonal
average to be common for the second half of the week and into the
weekend. Also...with the more summer time pattern...daily diurnal
shower/thunderstorm chances look to become possible each day. At
this time...the greater potentials look to be across the higher
terrain locations of Southeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas.
These pulse type storms could carry some limited severe potentials
with brief heavy rainfall possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  68  88  70 /  10  10  10  20
FSM   86  68  87  70 /  10  10  30  10
MLC   85  69  86  70 /  10  10  30  10
BVO   84  64  88  69 /  20  10  10  20
FYV   81  63  84  67 /  10  10  20  20
BYV   82  63  86  67 /  10  10  20  20
MKO   84  68  87  70 /  10  10  20  10
MIO   82  64  87  68 /  20  10  10  20
F10   85  68  87  69 /  10  10  20  10
HHW   85  70  84  70 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....18

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
442 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-250945-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
442 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Mainly late tonight.

DISCUSSION...
Areas of showers and embedded thunderstorms have moved out of
southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas early this morning.
Scattered thunderstorms may develop late Monday night across
southeast Oklahoma as the low-level jet strengthens. Severe
weather is into expected.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY through SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible into Tuesday afternoon.
A few of these storms could be strong to marginally severe.
There are some indications that a complex of storms could move
into the region from the northwest or north late Tuesday night
although confidence is rather low at this time.

Otherwise, low chances for mostly diurnal showers and
thunderstorms will persist for most of the week and into the
weekend.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.