Flash Flood Warning 54, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
323 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Convection has been slowly filling in across parts of the forecast
area, ahead of upper low and focusing on low-level convergence
boundary noted in mesonet data across northeast OK into northwest
AR. Main concern this afternoon/evening will be localized
flooding, with slow moving storms capable of producing rainfall
rates exceeding 2"/hour. Not every location will experience heavy
rainfall given the scattered nature, but some spots could receive
a quick 3-4" of rain. Given the wet ground conditions, rapid onset
flash flooding will be an issue the remainder of the day.

The upper low will shift east into AR by Friday, although
wraparound moisture and daytime heating will result in scattered
showers/thunderstorms mainly along and east of Highway 75.
Precipitation chances will taper off Friday night with the loss
of heating.

A drier/cooler airmass will move into the region Sunday night into
Monday, with an extended period of below normal temperatures
expected through the remainder of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  83  65  86 /  60  50  10   0
FSM   66  83  67  86 /  60  70  20  10
MLC   64  81  65  85 /  40  40  10   0
BVO   65  83  64  85 /  60  50  10   0
FYV   64  79  63  82 /  70  70  20  20
BYV   64  78  64  82 /  70  70  30  20
MKO   65  81  65  85 /  60  60  10  10
MIO   65  82  64  84 /  70  60  20  10
F10   64  81  65  86 /  50  40  10   0
HHW   66  82  67  86 /  50  40  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....18

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1232 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1232 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019

...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TODAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Most of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 3 pm.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 3 pm.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 3 pm.

DISCUSSION...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop across
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this Afternoon and
continue into Tonight as an upper level low moves across
the region. The showers and thunderstorms will be slow-moving,
efficient rain producers, and will likely result in localized
quick-onset flash flooding. There will also be some threat of
rises on areas streams and rivers, depending on where the
heaviest rains fall. In addition to heavy rain, some
stronger cells may produce marginally severe hail and wind gusts.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SATURDAY through Wednesday...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to gradually decrease in
coverage through Saturday, with some threat of locally heavy
rainfall continuing. Dry and cooler weather will prevail for the
early part of next week.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Continue to monitor ongoing weather conditions, especially in
areas that are still dealing with overland flooding. Lake levels
remain well above normal and any additional heavy rain may lead to
increased river levels.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.