Flash Flood Warning 102, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
241 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

.DISCUSSION...
The heaviest rainfall has been primarily confined to parts of
southeast OK, where around 2 to 6 inches of rain has fallen since
midnight. Surface analysis depicts a weak inverted trof across
this region along with pooling of 2"+ PWATs lending to rainfall
rates around 1-2" inches/hr. These conditions should persist
through the rest of the afternoon and into the early evening
before convection begins to wind down. The primary focus for later
tonight will shift toward parts of northeast OK, as convection
currently developing across the TX panhandle spreads northeast.

Periodic convection may persist well into Saturday across parts of
northeast OK, within a zone of warm air/moisture advection ahead
of a frontal boundary. Saturday evening should end up being
mostly dry, although storm chances will return late Saturday night
as the front begins to sag southeast. Shower/thunderstorm chances
look to increase into Sunday as the cold front drops into the
region. Deep-layered shear will be supportive of a few
strong/severe storms, although the main concern will likely be
heavy rainfall with forecast PWATs around 2 inches.

Drier low-level air will temporarily overspread the forecast area,
with rather pleasant temperature expected for Monday morning.

Active westerly to southwesterly upper flow will persist through
the remainder of the week, with nearly daily chances of convection
possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  84  73  83 /  30  50  40  80
FSM   70  88  72  87 /  40  20  10  40
MLC   73  85  74  85 /  40  10  10  60
BVO   72  81  71  81 /  30  50  50  80
FYV   69  82  69  80 /  50  20  20  60
BYV   68  83  70  83 /  40  20  10  50
MKO   71  84  72  83 /  40  30  20  80
MIO   70  82  71  79 /  40  50  40  80
F10   72  84  73  84 /  30  30  20  80
HHW   70  87  71  87 /  50  10  10  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....18

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
445 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
445 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Mainly southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Mainly southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue across southeast
Oklahoma late this afternoon and are expected to continue
across southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas through
the evening hours before tapering off. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas. Heavy rain will continue to be a concern
across southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas through
the evening hours with another 1 to 2 inches of rain possible.
This could lead to flooding of low lying areas.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

An active and unsettled weather pattern is expected this weekend
into next week. Several rounds of showers and storms are expected,
first with a cold front Sunday into Monday, the retreating front
on Tuesday and finally with an upper level disturbance on
Thursday. Each round will bring potential for locally heavy
rainfall and a limited severe weather threat.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.