Excessive Heat Warning 8, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1236 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Few to scattered mid and high clouds are forecast this afternoon
with some passing high clouds overnight tonight across the CWA. An
isolated shower/storm may be possible this afternoon over
Northwest Arkansas...though with isolated coverage forecast will
keep mention out of the TAFs for now. During the day Tuesday...few
to scattered mid and high clouds should again be possible. Winds
through the period are forecast to be fairly light varying from
east to southwest.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1055 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Upper level ridge of high pressure remained the dominate feature
across the Southern Plains at mid morning. At the surface...a
surface frontal boundary was positioned west to east across Kansas
with hot and humid conditions quickly developing south of the
boundary over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.

Through this afternoon...the ridge of high pressure will remain in
place with the surface boundary staying north of the CWA.
Thus...hot and humid conditions will continue across the CWA with
highs in the mid to upper 90s and southerly winds of 5 to 15 mph
common. A few locations across Eastern Oklahoma could make a run
at 100 degrees. Dewpoints are expected to remain in the 70s
through the afternoon which will create heat index values in the
105 to near 115 degrees for the CWA. In response...current heat
headlines look to be in good shape at this time.

Also this afternoon...a few isolated diurnal showers and
thunderstorms still look to be possible mainly across the higher
terrain locations of Northwest Arkansas. Locally strong winds look
to be the main threat as deep layer shear values are expected to
be marginal within any convection. The greater instability is
forecast to reside just north of the CWA near the surface
boundary and organized severe weather is not currently
anticipated.

For the morning update...have tweaked temps/dewpoints slightly
higher and also added latest trends/obs to hourly grids. The rest
of the forecast seem to be handling well at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  98  77  94 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   77  98  77  96 /   0   0   0  20
MLC   77  98  76  96 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   74  96  74  92 /   0   0   0  30
FYV   71  93  72  91 /   0   0   0  30
BYV   72  95  73  92 /   0   0   0  30
MKO   75  97  75  94 /   0   0   0  20
MIO   75  94  74  92 /   0   0   0  30
F10   76  99  75  94 /   0   0   0  20
HHW   76  97  76  98 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-058-063-
     068-069.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ049-053>076.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ054>057-059>062-064>067-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-010.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ001-010-019-
     020-029.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

AVIATION.....20

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