Tornado Warning 50, NWS Topeka, KS

378 
WWUS53 KTOP 012036
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
336 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019

KSC201-012045-
/O.EXP.KTOP.TO.W.0050.000000T0000Z-191001T2045Z/
Washington-
336 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 345 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for north 
central Kansas.

LAT...LON 4000 9682 3989 9705 3997 9723 4000 9719
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 224DEG 45KT 4004 9697 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
314 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019

Moderate to locally heavy precipitation remains possible through
tonight, primarily along a broad line from Abilene to Hiawatha.

Our well-advertised prolonged rainfall event is underway across
central and western Kansas. A broad mid-level moisture fetch
extending from the southern Gulf of California, coupled with low-
level moisture transport northward from the Gulf of Mexico, has
pushed PWAT values into near record territory for this time of
year. Soundings from TOP are just shy of the record PWAT for this
date and DDC/AMA's sounding values well above record values.
While the moisture aspect of this event is pegged at
climatological extremes, concern lingers over the degree of
mesoscale forcing required to realize this moisture as heavy
rainfall. Low level frontogenetical plots from various medium
resolution guidance solutions show an appreciable decline in FG
lift after 06Z tonight, likely in response to a veering of the
lower tropospheric wind profiles to nearly parallel to the
initiating boundary. Upper level support remains modest with a
series of mid-level perturbations working through the broad SW
flow that should aid in producing widespread moderate rainfall.
However, confidence in the location and degree of rainfall along
the heaviest axis is on the lower side given the forcing concerns.

Meanwhile, enough BL heating has taken place ahead of this mid-
level moisture plume to induce a region of low-level
baroclinicity/vertical vorticity zone across north-central Kansas.
Additional destabilization has resulted in 1500-2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE with 150 J/kg of 0-3 km CAPE in the low-levels. Very high
unidirectional effective shear profiles and the lack of a strong
initiating boundary will support initial organized supercellular
structures with both right and left moving cells possible. Fast-
moving tornadoes will be possible in this environment given the
effective SRH values of 100-200 m2/s2 and storm motions of 40 to
50 kts to the northeast. Hail may also be a threat early on,
transitioning to a wind threat as cold pools merge later on.

The best period for heavy rainfall looks to be overnight tonight
as the effective boundary sags southeastward into the central
forecast area. The best juxtaposition of ingredients looks to be
along a broad axis from Abilene to Hiawatha before 06Z, with the
overall forcing waning as mentioned earlier. A somewhat narrow
corridor of 1 to 2 inch rainfall amounts is possible with locally
higher amounts. Have made no changes to the flash flood watch with
this update.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019

The threat for locally heavy rainfall persists into Wednesday,
with the best chance being on Wednesday night in the far southeast
forecast area.

The near-surface frontal boundary meanders over the forecast area
during the day Wednesday, with lower than average confidence in
the exact boundary placement due to the impacts that overnight
convection will have on its speed and placement. The GFS/EC/RAP
all stall the front and actually lift it slightly northward during
the day in response to a lee cyclone pulling off the Front Range.
This differs significantly from the NAM/CAMs the develop a much
stronger cold pool that accelerates the front southeastward and
takes the bulk of the heavy rainfall with it. Leaned towards the
more synoptically-driven guidance for the forecast variables
affected by this boundary placement and a secondary axis of heavy
rainfall forecast for Wednesday evening along and southeast of
I-35.

The upper level wave out west is finally in the process of
ejecting out of the Pacific NW and tracks northeastward over the
next 36 hours and finally usher the front south of the area by
Thursday morning. In its wake, temperatures fall to near seasonal
values for this time of year. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s and
lows in the 40s and 50s. The progressive pattern will bring about
a second trough across the northwest CONUS that lifts the
baroclinic zone back northward on Friday into Saturday. Additional
showers and storms will be associated with both the warm and cold
frontal passage of this extratropical system. Periodic chances
for precipitation linger into early next week, but confidence in
their details is low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019

MVFR to IFR ceilings gradually build southeastward late this
evening and overnight as a frontal boundary slowly moves through.
Gusty southerly winds of 15 to 25 kts will switch to the north to
northwest behind the front, with widespread showers and
thunderstorms likely along the front through the period, impacting
the TAF sites mainly tonight into tomorrow.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for KSZ008>010-020-
021-034.

Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
evening for KSZ011-012-022>024-026-035>039.

&&

SHORT TERM...Skow
LONG TERM...Skow
AVIATION...Skow

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
319 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-022030-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
319 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to continue along and south of a slow
moving front in north-central and northeast Kansas through
tonight. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding and river
flooding. In addition, several strong to severe thunderstorms may
produce tornadoes, hail and damaging winds through early this
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms and the threat for flash flooding persist into
Wednesday with the heavier rainfall axis shifting east towards
far northeast and portions of east-central Kansas Wednesday
afternoon. Total widespread rainfall amounts through Wednesday
range from 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts anticipated.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

KDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
254 PM CDT TUE OCT 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SW REPUBLIC           39.89N 97.86W
10/01/2019  M3.50 INCH       REPUBLIC           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DAILY TOTAL SO FAR.

&&