Tornado Warning 17, NWS Topeka, KS

055 
WWUS53 KTOP 242224
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
524 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

KSC031-111-139-242245-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-190524T2245Z/
Osage-Coffey-Lyon-
524 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN OSAGE...NORTHWESTERN COFFEY AND SOUTHEASTERN LYON
COUNTIES...
    
At 524 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Neosho Rapids, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Hartford around 530 PM CDT.
  Neosho Rapids around 535 PM CDT.
  Lebo and Melvern Lake around 545 PM CDT.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 131 and 156.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3823 9610 3836 9625 3862 9588 3846 9566
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 240DEG 24KT 3834 9605 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

Hennecke

606 
WWUS53 KTOP 242231
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
531 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

KSC031-111-139-242245-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-190524T2245Z/
Osage-Coffey-Lyon-
531 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN OSAGE...NORTHWESTERN COFFEY AND SOUTHEASTERN LYON
COUNTIES...
    
At 529 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Neosho Rapids, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.  

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Lebo, Beto Junction and Melvern Lake around 545 PM CDT.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 136 and 156.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3825 9606 3843 9610 3862 9588 3846 9566
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 249DEG 28KT 3835 9600 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

Hennecke

184 
WWUS53 KTOP 242239
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
539 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

KSC031-111-139-242245-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-190524T2245Z/
Osage-Coffey-Lyon-
539 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN OSAGE...NORTHWESTERN COFFEY AND EAST CENTRAL LYON
COUNTIES...
    
At 539 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 4 miles southwest of Lebo, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southwestern Osage, northwestern Coffey and east central Lyon
Counties.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 139 and 156.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3828 9600 3841 9603 3855 9579 3846 9566
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 235DEG 31KT 3838 9591 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

Hennecke

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
318 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

Heavy rainfall and the potential for flash flooding increases late
this afternoon and evening as thunderstorms are expected to develop
in a warm and moist environment ahead of a cold front tracking east
through the area. Latest water vapor imagery shows a  mid level
trough lifting into the southern and central plains. Meanwhile
strong moisture advection ahead of the front has raised PWAT
values between 1.5 and 1.7 inches. These numbers are expected to
rise close to 2 inches this evening, 3 standard deviations above
normal. As thunderstorms continue to develop this afternoon and
evening along and south of Interstate 70 corridor, convergence
along the front maximizes with a strong mid level jet streak to
favor multiple clusters of strong to severe storms training over
portions of southeast Kansas this afternoon and evening. Training
convection is likely to result in widespread 2 to 3 inches in the
aforementioned areas with locally higher amounts up to 4 inches
possible. With the favorable environment for heavy thunderstorms
and potential for flash flooding, there is a high risk currently
in effect through tonight for areas south of the Interstate 70
corridor.

In addition to the heavy rainfall, strong effective bulk shear and
strong mid level lapse rates will keep the risk for the large hail
and damaging wind gusts the primary threats. Isolated tornadoes
cannot be ruled out given the decent low level wind profiles on
forecast soundings and low LCLs spreading northward as surface
dewpoints are progged to reach near 70 degrees by 00Z. The tornado
threat persists through early evening while the hail and wind
threat continues overnight as a strong low level jet veers
southwestward overnight, maintaining an environment of 0-6 km
bulk shear values near 40 kts with ample MUCAPE to work with.

Convection moves out Saturday morning with expected clearing through
early afternoon before the next round of strong to severe storms
arrives in the late afternoon and evening hours. Storms are expected
to develop along and south of a front with very high sfc based cape
values with bulk shear up to 40 kts. Severe weather will be likely
through the evening with all hazards being possible, in addition to
the heavy rainfall. High PWAT values and potential for heavy
thunderstorms lead to decent confidence in the flash flood potential
to persist through Sunday morning so have extended the Flash Flood
Watch for the entire area through this period.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

Additional rounds of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are possible
again Sunday evening as another mid level wave lifts across Kansas.
Exact placement of the heaviest rainfall is still uncertain given
the discrepancies between guidance. Upper low matures on Monday with
a brief drying period through Monday evening. Chances for thunder
increase once again Tuesday afternoon across far eastern areas as
the upper low shifts east and out of the central plains area by
Wednesday. Northwest flow aloft ensues with upper ridging across the
Pacific Northwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

VFR to start at KTOP/KFOE with clearing MVFR deck at KMHK as the
front shifts eastward. Scattered TSRA is expected to develop and
track northeast towards KTOP/KFOE in the 21Z to 23Z time frame.
Lesser confidence for KMHK where most of the activity is progged
to be east of the terminal. Scattered storms linger throughout the
evening with MVFR decks likely through 12Z Saturday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

SHORT TERM...Prieto
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...Prieto

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
321 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-252030-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
321 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms will redevelop this afternoon. The
best chance for strong to severe thunderstorms will be across
east central and portions of northeast KS this afternoon and
evening. The primary hazards with any severe thunderstorms will be
large hail, damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall. An isolated
tornado or two is possible south of Interstate 70.

The Flash Flood Watch was expanded to include the entire area,
from this morning through Sunday morning. Flooding is especially
dangerous at night when flood waters are harder to see.

River flooding will also continue this evening and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms continues Saturday
through Tuesday, with heavy rainfall and flooding also a hazard
with these storms. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes
are also possible Saturday late afternoon and evening.

River flooding is expected to continue through much of the
week and into the Memorial Day holiday weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
248 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

KSZ054-242045-
Lyon-
248 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LYON COUNTY UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 248 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles south of Cottonwood Falls, moving east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Emporia, Americus, Olpe, Hartford, Neosho Rapids, Allen and Admire.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 128 and 143.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 116 and 144.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for east central
Kansas.

LAT...LON 3855 9635 3870 9610 3849 9595 3829 9595
      3821 9636
TIME...MOT...LOC 1948Z 247DEG 31KT 3822 9652

Baerg

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
335 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0329 PM     HAIL             6 S ALLEN               38.57N 96.17W
05/24/2019  E0.88 INCH       LYON               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JP