Severe Thunderstorm Warning 285, NWS Topeka, KS

298 
WWUS53 KTOP 261335
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
835 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

KSC117-201-261415-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0285.000000T0000Z-190826T1415Z/
Washington-Marshall-
835 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 AM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTIES...

At 834 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 4 miles northeast of
Hollenberg, moving southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Two inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Spotter reported golf ball size hail in the town of Diller 
         in Nebraska at 831 AM CDT.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Marysville, Blue Rapids, Hanover, Waterville, Beattie, Summerfield,
Oketo, Hollenberg and Bremen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9624 3999 9624 3961 9671 4000 9717
TIME...MOT...LOC 1334Z 307DEG 36KT 4001 9691 

HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BD

610 
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
856 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

KSC117-201-261415-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0285.000000T0000Z-190826T1415Z/
Washington-Marshall-
856 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 AM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTIES...

At 855 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Marysville,
moving southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Two inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters reported golf ball size hail in 
         the town of Diller in Nebraska at 831 AM CDT.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Marysville around 900 AM CDT.
  Blue Rapids around 910 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9624 3999 9624 3961 9671 3988 9703
      4000 9690
TIME...MOT...LOC 1355Z 311DEG 35KT 3986 9672 

HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BD

299 
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
905 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

KSC201-261414-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0285.000000T0000Z-190826T1415Z/
Washington-
905 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4000 9624 3999 9624 3961 9671 3970 9681
      3986 9681 4000 9668
TIME...MOT...LOC 1404Z 312DEG 34KT 3978 9670 

$$

KSC117-261415-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0285.000000T0000Z-190826T1415Z/
Marshall-
905 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 AM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTY...

At 904 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 5 miles southwest of
Marysville, moving southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters reported golf ball size hail in 
         the town of Diller in Nebraska at 831 AM CDT.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Marysville, Blue Rapids, Waterville, Beattie, Summerfield and Oketo. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9624 3999 9624 3961 9671 3970 9681
      3986 9681 4000 9668
TIME...MOT...LOC 1404Z 312DEG 34KT 3978 9670 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BD

556 
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
914 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

KSC117-261424-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0285.000000T0000Z-190826T1415Z/
Marshall-
914 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 915 AM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small
hail, gusty winds and heavy rain are still possible with this 
thunderstorm.  A significant weather advisory has replaced this 
warning.

LAT...LON 4000 9624 3999 9624 3961 9671 3970 9681
      3986 9681 4000 9668
TIME...MOT...LOC 1414Z 304DEG 43KT 3972 9659 

$$

BD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
638 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

There are several forecast challenges in the short term. A weakening
storm complex was working east-southeast across southern South
Dakota and northern Nebraska early this morning associated with a
shortwave digging into this region. Objective analysis has a near
999 mb surface low over eastern Colorado though the pressure
gradient over eastern Kansas is quite weak. Locations that cleared
Sunday afternoon have seen low cloud and some fog develop, however
there is also a field of stratus around 5000 feet AGL indicated on
IR satellite and observations making modest east to northeast
progress over eastern Kansas. The cold front associated with the
northern wave is somewhat ill-defined in part due to the MCS.

The last several RAP and HRRR runs have indicated elevated
thunderstorm development occurring overhead near 12Z as a moderate
low-level jet increases. The aforementioned higher deck of cloud
indicates good saturation near the jet level, but there is also a
rather warm layer suggested to exist about the jet, but enough
downstream forcing is also indicated for little elevated CIN later
this morning. Have kept the chance PoPs for much of the area this
morning with at least minor concern for some hail production in
effective shear near 40 knots. Patchy to areas of fog will likely
continue through dawn but increasing mixing downstream of the
approaching front should see the low cloud and fog slowly diminish
this morning, though confidence in scouring is lower than normal
with backed flow continuing. Timing of the cold front through
central and eastern Kansas remains difficult to pin down, but even
the slowest solutions clear the boundary out of the CWA by early
evening. Mixing of an increasingly-moist lower troposphere brings
dewpoints into the middle to perhaps upper 70s in southern locations
for a very unstable airmass to be in place ahead of the front. All
guidance continues to rapidly weaken any remaining capping as the
front passes though there is a variety of solutions in convection
coverage and intensity. At least moderate PoPs are in order for
southern and eastern locations in the mid afternoon to early
evening. Winds veering to the west by 500 mb create an environment
supporting at least initial supercell storms with low-level shear
enough for some tornado potential. Deep moisture and weak winds
aloft should bring more linear updrafts with time. Immediate post-
frontal northwest winds could approach 35 knots with a decent
pressure gradient in its wake. The late evening to overnight hours
should be quiet.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

The subsequent wave tracking southeast through the trough Tuesday
and Tuesday night continues to look moisture-starved and the dry
forecast continues through the mid-week. Precip chances increase for
the late week into the weekend as the next front settles into the
area in the continued northwest flow over the central portions of
the CONUS. Temperatures should remain to be somewhat below late-
August normals save some pre-frontal warmer values Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

Overall only minor changes to the going forecast. Main concerns
are ceiling and visibility trends at TOP and FOE though another
area of IFR clouds over central Kansas could impact MHK as well.
Still expect some improvements through the day though exact timing
is uncertain. Elevated convection this morning should be weak with
more impactful storms possible around 22Z at TOP and FOE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...65

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
425 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-270930-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
425 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Areas of fog are possible this morning across parts of east-
central and northeast Kansas.

Thunderstorms are possible across the entire area through early
afternoon. Thunderstorm chance end from northwest to southeast
during the mid-afternoon to mid-evening hours. Some of the storms
could be severe, with the greatest chances for severe storms being
southeast of a line from Council Grove to Oskaloosa from 3 PM to
8 PM. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be
possible in this area. Hail up to around an inch in diameter could
occur with a few storms this morning into the early afternoon.

Minor river flooding on the Big Blue River near Blue Rapids will
continue through the end of the week. Minor river flooding may
occur on a few rivers in north central Kansas today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed in the mid afternoon to early
evening hours in east central Kansas.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
645 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

KSZ009-010-261215-
Washington-Marshall-
645 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTIES UNTIL 715 AM CDT...

At 645 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hollenberg, moving east at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Marysville, Hanover, Oketo, Hollenberg and Bremen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9657 3972 9665 3986 9715 4000 9710
TIME...MOT...LOC 1145Z 283DEG 38KT 3994 9703

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
712 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

KSZ010-261245-
Marshall-
712 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARSHALL COUNTY UNTIL 745 AM
CDT...

At 712 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Marysville, moving southeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Marysville, Blue Rapids, Frankfort, Waterville, Axtell, Beattie and
Oketo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3995 9624 3984 9624 3956 9637 3956 9651
      3967 9681 3975 9681 4000 9668
TIME...MOT...LOC 1212Z 293DEG 40KT 3982 9668