Severe Thunderstorm Warning 284, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1155 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

A risk of severe winds and some flash flooding concern will set up
over western areas tonight otherwise gloomy damp weather remains for
the this afternoon and into portions of Sunday morning.

An MCS is expected to advance through portions of north central
Kansas into southern Kansas overnight tonight.  Much of the severe
threat today appears to remain west of the area, but some clearing
over western areas on the back side of an overnight MCV (trailing
edge now lifting through the area into Nebraska) gives concern to
fostering an environment into the overnight period favorable for MCS
maintenance.  Per current mesoanalysis, much of the forecast area
has been under cloud cover and thus remains stable in the lowest
levels.  However, portions of north central Kansas have been
destabilizing under partial clearing.  The cu field is mainly flat
and not well developed at this point.  However, storms previous
anticipated over southwestern Nebraska into northwestern Kansas
appear to be underway with recent development producing some
lightning strikes southeast of the North Platte area.  As a mid level
shortwave provides additional forcing for ascent along with a
destabilizing boundary layer with around 2,000 J/kg of MLCAPE,
storms should become a little more organized into the evening as the
shear profile increases.  Storms are forecast to congeal and begin
to advance southeast overnight and follow the H85 theta-e axis with
the strongest storms advancing into Kansas just west of the forecast
area.  There are at least some concerns that a portion of the
overall line of storms could produce severe outflow winds into early
this evening over extreme western portions of the area.  Therefore,
a severe wind gust or two can't be ruled out.  Additionally, enough
concern remains for heavy rainfall over portions of the area mainly
west of Manhattan to issue a flash flood watch.  Flash flood
guidance is relatively low over some of these areas.  Although storm
motion may be fast enough to limit larger concerns, there is
potential with PW amounts around 2 inches to have rain rates that
are high enough to produce 1-3 inches over some areas with a
possible 4 inches in isolated areas.  Therefore, have issued a flash
flood watch for Cloud, Ottawa and Dickinson counties from 10 PM to
around sunrise.

Sunday, the area should begin to slowly clear out and dry out behind
the exiting convective complex.  High temperatures over north
central areas reach to around 80 with mid 70s across eastern
zones.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Into Monday, the next upper level wave dives into the northern
Plains by late in the afternoon and evening pushing a cold front
into the area with a region of low pressure reinforcing low level
convergence and over portions of southwestern Kansas.  With mid
level flow more out of the southwest, capping may be an issue as
well as the slight northern displacement of the wave.  This would
probably hinder storm development and brings uncertainty to the
severe threat for the afternoon.  It bears watching as the shear
profile remains fairly good this far south in the vicinity of the
boundary.  So, if storms do get going over the area, then severe
potential can't be discounted.

Into Tuesday and Wednesday, surface ridging builds into the area and
keeps a drying trend in place with temperatures around 80.  The
dewpoints cool rather nicely during this period into the mid 50s to
around 60.  Should be a few nice days.

Into the latter part of the week, some small chances for
precipitation return with weak embedded waves in the northwesterly
flow pattern and some returning low level moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

MVFR ceilings this evening once again degrade to around IFR
levels overnight, with showers and thunderstorms moving through
from west to east between now and 15Z. MVFR ceilings persist for
much of Sunday, lifting late Sunday afternoon. Winds should be
from the east to south at 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Sunday for KSZ020-034-035.

&&

UPDATE...Skow
SHORT TERM...Drake
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...Skow

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
916 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-260230-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
916 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The threat for thunderstorms increases overnight from west to
east, with heavy rainfall being the main threat. An isolated
severe storm with damaging winds and large hail cannot be ruled
out. The best threat for these hazards will be over central and
north- central Kansas. a flash flood watch is in effect for
tonight for portions of north-central and central Kansas.

Flooding of the Big Blue River near Blue Rapids continues.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms, some severe, may be possible Monday afternoon and
evening in northeast and east-central Kansas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

KDS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
300 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

KSZ037-250830-
Morris-
300 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL MORRIS COUNTY UNTIL 330
AM CDT...

At 300 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles north of Burdick, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Herington, Council Grove, White City, Wilsey, Parkerville, Latimer,
Council Grove Lake and Burdick.

LAT...LON 3866 9693 3868 9693 3887 9665 3868 9644
      3852 9684 3853 9684
TIME...MOT...LOC 0800Z 236DEG 24KT 3864 9683

Hennecke