Severe Thunderstorm Warning 221, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
250 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

Convective trends and intensities are the main challenges. Mesoscale-
convective system continues to impact northern portions of the area
in seasonally-strong west-northwest flow aloft with continued 850 mb
southwest winds around 20 knots keeping some higher theta-e air
ingest in place. Outflow boundary from this convection was bisecting
the CWA from west to east with well-mixed and moisture-rich boundary
layer air pushing north-northwest into it. Latest analysis indicates
at least modest ML CIN persists but strong convergence was leading
to some 19Z cumulus development in central Kansas with ML CAPE near
3500 J/kg.

Short-range guidance continues to struggle with ongoing
precipitation most solutions point to some redevelopment in the next
several hours. Hard to get too precise with location and timing but
expect at least isolated convection to develop by 00Z near the
boundary and push east to southeast into the evening. The developing
nocturnal low-level jet will increase already strong shear for a
environment very supportive of supercells into the evening, with
their persistence at least partially moderated by the orientation of
the boundary, with continues to alter with time. All modes of severe
weather will be possible into at least 03Z with a slowly-
destabilizing boundary layer likely leading to decreasing potential
overnight. The decreasing trend will also be aided by a shortwave
trough pushing east into the upper Mississippi Valley, bringing a
reinforcing boundary into northern Kansas.

The eventual location of this boundary will be a key player in
thunderstorm activity for Friday afternoon and evening. Most
guidance brings it through at least I-70 but it may reside over the
southern counties in the late afternoon and early evening. There is
some potential for an increasing capping inversion to build in over
the boundary layer and may keep daytime development in check, and
this could be under a deck of lower stratus, further curtailing
convection and resulting in lower confidence in high temperatures.
The greater threat will likely come as the low-level jet returns
in the evening and overnight for elevated WAA-induced development.
With potential training of storms over this boundary over precip
falling today/tonight, there is some concern for excessive
rainfall amounts.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

Evolution of the weather on Saturday will depend on linger
convection and outflow/front from Friday night, and speed of the
shortwave trof progged to move through the state.  Generally zonal
flow across the state does little to shift warm front north or
south, leaving a focus for convection across the northern part of
the state. GFS solutions would pose a higher threat for strong
storms given available instability as wave moves over eastern Kansas
in the afternoon/evening hours, advecting moist unstable air into
the warm sector then developing convection. Will keep chance PoPs
for lingering morning convection, followed by the uncertainty of the
location of redevelopment in the afternoon/evening.  Highs rise to
the low 90s, possibly a few degrees cooler north of the warm front
near the NE border.

Broader large scale upper trof moves across southern Canada and the
northern plains late Saturday night, giving the upper ridge a chance
to nose northward into the Central Plains Sunday into Monday. Highs
rise back into the 90s with upper 90s in central parts of the state,
and heat indices possibly back into the 100-110 range Sunday
through Tuesday afternoons.

May start to get some influence from cooler air pushing southward
behind the upper low over the Great Lakes for Wednesday, and another
chance for rain as it does so, bringing forecast highs back down to
the upper 80s to near 90 for mid/late week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

Thunderstorm chances inhabit much of the first half of this
forecast, though confidence on specific windows when they will
impact the terminals is not high. Have kept at VCTS in the next
few hours for TOP and FOE near the developing line to the north.
Storms are expected to redevelop along associated outflow
boundaries in the 22Z-02Z window though where the updrafts form is
in question based on trends over coming several hours. Lingering
moisture behind a reinforcing front may result in a MVFR ceiling
late in the forecast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...65

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
311 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-162015-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
311 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorm chances increase across the entire area as the late
afternoon and evening progress, but thunderstorm chances
gradually end overnight. Some of the storms this afternoon and
this evening may be severe with large to very large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Locally heavy rainfall is
also possible.

Flooding on the Big Blue River near Blue Rapids continues.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Additional rounds of thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall
are possible Friday night through Sunday morning. Severe weather
can't be ruled out with these storms with the most likely hazards
being large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall that could
lead to localized flash flooding concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through the late evening hours.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

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