Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
338 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

Current conditions over the area are quiet with clear skies at this
hour as blow off from storm tops over Nebraska have overspread areas
north of the current complex of storms over southwestern into south
central Nebraska following the trajectory of the upper flow pattern.
 The surface cold front has made its way into southeastern Nebraska
and north central Kansas vicinity at this hour.  The upper trough
and associated upper low extend from eastern ND into central and
just clipping southern portions of Nebraska.  As such, the best
height falls and associated forcing for ascent remain in Nebraska
and into the upper MS Valley region.  Associated mid level speed max
is spread over Nebraska helping to support a couple elevated
supercellular storms over the Nebraska Plains and now moving into
south central Nebraska.

Current indications are that these storms may eventually be able to
make their way into north central areas of Kansas before
weakening into the early morning hours. Soundings from the 00Z
launches and SPC Mesoanalysis suggest that sufficient shear and
favorable instability remain over north central areas of the
forecast area. Therefore, have continued with at least chance POPs
as storms advance into the area. Can't rule out there could still
be a an strong to severe storm move into the area especially
points northwest of the Manhattan. Overall CAM guidance and
environmental data suggest that as storms continue to move into
the area, they should weaken and become less organized. Outflow
from the storms should reinforce the cool boundary and advance it
further south through the area this morning. Therefore, the focus
for any afternoon storms that develop would likely be over the
southern most portions of east central Kansas. Although mid level
lapse rates will be lacking this afternoon - with better height
falls and forcing positioned well northeast of the area - strong
instability and deeper moisture will likely coincide with marginal
shear to cause at least some concern for a severe storm or two
this afternoon over east central Kansas. Strong and possibly
damaging winds appear to be the main concern along with heavy rain
and perhaps some large hail from the most mature storms.

Due to the modified nature of the "cold" front, dewpoints drop off
only about 5 degrees or so from south to north across the area.
Therefore, with temperatures near 90 south of I-70, do expect heat
index values to range into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

Into the mid and longer range periods, dry and hot conditions appear
to be the story.  With any significant perturbations in the flow
pattern remaining well north of the area and a semipermanent
anticyclone over the southwestern CONUS, do expect subtle height
rises over the area with H85 temps ranging between 18-25 degrees C
over the next week. This should allow for heat index values to be
solidly into the 90s and perhaps low 100s by the weekend.

It appears the trend in guidance from the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian
solutions track the tropical storm system remnants just to the
east of the area during the Tuesday and Wednesday time frame. This
would likely keep the heart of the tropical moisture to the east
of the area, which is good news with already very full reservoirs
over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019

Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms may move east across
the terminals after 11Z WED but should push southeast of the
terminals after 15Z WED. Ahead of the line of scattered showers
and thunderstorms there may be scattered low stratus developing
with bases of 1000 to 1500 feet from 11Z WED through 15Z WED.
Expect VFR conditions after 15Z WED

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Drake
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...Gargan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
344 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-110845-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
344 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible early this morning mainly over north
central into portions of northeast Kansas. It is possible a storm
could produce large hail and damaging wind gusts.

A few severe thunderstorms will be possible again this afternoon
along and south of Interstate 35. Large hail and damaging winds
will be the main threats once again. Locally heavy rain will also
be possible.

Flooding on the Big Blue River and its tributaries up stream of
Tuttle Creek Lake will continue until water levels on the lake
come down. Flooding of the Delaware River upper stream of Perry
Lake will continue until water levels on the lake come down.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Flooding along the Republican River is expected to develop
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

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