Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2019

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Topeka, KS

June 15, 2019Franklin County, Osage County, Kansas

NWS Topeka, KS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 15, 2019, 10:42 PM CDT for Franklin County, Osage County, Kansas. It was in force for 48 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jun 15, 2019, 10:42 PM CDT (03:42 UTC)
Expired: Jun 15, 2019, 11:30 PM CDT
In force: 48 min
Issued by: NWS Topeka, KS
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Franklin County, KS, Osage County, KS

The radar

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 76 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jun 15, 10:04 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 3.7 hours before the alert went out and 45 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2187 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -10 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1565 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 22 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 79 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 1.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 15, 6:59 PM CDT, 3 hours 43 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 15, 6:59 PM CDT, 3 hours 43 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
659 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Focus on storm chances tonight across the area.

A cold front was located across northern KS this afternoon with
isolated to widely sct tsra developing near and behind the front.
Water vapor showed a wave across the Dakotas with another wave
across NM.

For this evening into tonight...expect widely scattered t-storms
to continue to occur in proximity to the front. MLCAPE of
1500-2500 j/kg along with effective shear of 25-35 kts may support
some storm organization for a time with wind/hail the main
hazards through late evening. Better coverage of storms may
actually occur near the OK/KS state line after 00z tonight as the
upper wave interacts with a better low level set up closer to
850mb LLJ and associated thetae advection. There is some
indication that additional storms may develop near the 850mb
boundary after sunset so will keep the higher chances for storms
across areas south of I-70 after midnight. The 850mb wind forecast
shows winds veering quickly after 06z so wouldn't expect support
for elevated storms to persist too long before shifting east which
should help mitigate flooding concerns across our southeast
counties.

It appears that Sunday may be predominately dry with the only
focus for convection expected to be a weak boundary that may
linger across parts of the area so will keep small chances mainly
south of I-70 for Sunday but again it would appear coverage should
be isolated/widely scattered at best.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

The better set up for widespread convection on Sunday appears to
be shifting southeast of our area and in fact may end up being
southeast of KS. For now will keep the low chance POPS for Sunday
night across our southeast but may end up being dry if trends
persist. By Monday...the upper low now across NM will gradually
pass to our southeast with shortwave ridging expected across the
eastern half of the state which should act to keep any airmass
t-storms isolated/widely scattered at worst. Both GFS and ECMWF
show a wave moving across the region with better chances for
organized storms on Tuesday or Tues night. The overall pattern
will then evolve from a zonal or NW flow regime to one
characterized by a deepening upper trough across the West with a
Ridge to our east and KS in between. This could lead to another
stormy stretch by the end of next week into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 657 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop at or around the
KTOP and KFOE terminals and may last through 4Z before shifting
south of the terminals. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Gargan

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 15, 3:01 PM CDT, 7 hours 41 minutes before

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In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jun 15, 9:03 PM CDT, 1 hour 39 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
903 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

KSZ039-040-055-160230-
Shawnee-Douglas-Osage-
903 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SHAWNEE...DOUGLAS
AND NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

At 902 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 3 miles south of Tonganoxie to near Richland.
Movement was east-southeast at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lawrence, Eudora, Richland, Overbrook, Clinton, Lone Star, Pleasant
Grove, Clinton Lake, Vinland and Globe.

This includes Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 195 and 205.

LAT...LON 3874 9543 3873 9550 3889 9574 3905 9524
      3904 9519 3896 9518 3896 9517 3898 9516
      3897 9513 3897 9511 3895 9509 3896 9508
      3898 9508 3899 9506 3886 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 0202Z 288DEG 14KT 3905 9508 3888 9559

Gargan

Special weather statement, Jun 15, 9:30 PM CDT, 1 hour 12 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
930 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

KSZ040-055-160300-
Douglas-Osage-
930 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DOUGLAS AND
NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

At 928 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Clinton to Carbondale. Movement was
southeast at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Carbondale, Overbrook, Scranton, Clinton, Lone Star, Clinton Lake and
Globe.

LAT...LON 3868 9573 3882 9578 3887 9560 3887 9550
      3890 9550 3893 9539 3881 9521
TIME...MOT...LOC 0228Z 337DEG 9KT 3891 9534 3881 9569

Gargan

Local storm report, Jun 15, 10:41 PM CDT, 1 minute before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Topeka, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 15, 9:03 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Douglas	27 min
Jun 15, 9:30 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Douglas	30 min
Jun 15, 10:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Douglas, Franklin, Osage	45 min
Jun 15, 11:28 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Lyon	47 min
Jun 15, 11:59 PM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	TOP	Jefferson	12 hr
Jun 16, 12:10 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Coffey	50 min
Jun 16, 12:56 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Anderson, Coffey	49 min
Jun 16, 11:44 AM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	TOP	Jefferson	12 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kansas, 2019 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.