River Flood Warning 159, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
640 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

Showers and thunderstorms capable of producing localized heavy
rainfall will persist through this morning, with redevelopment
possible this afternoon in east-central Kansas and further west in
central Kansas later tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms developed gradually yesterday evening
in central and north-central Kansas as a H950-H850 LLJ
strengthened and aided in parcels realizing 500-1000 J/kg of
MUCAPE rooted around 800 mb. These cells were also aided by ascent
ahead of a weak H500 shortwave trough axis positioned just west
of the forecast area as noted in GOES-16 water vapor imagery.
Overall weak westerly steering flow and shear profiles resulted in
transient updrafts becoming outflow dominant and fostering
upscale growth into multi-cell clusters. These slow moving
clusters, embedded in a moisture-rich environment, brought
localized heavy rainfall for the region with some locations seeing
1 to 3+ inches of rain in only a few hours per MRMS estimates.

This convective complex should slowly progress eastward over the
course of the morning, gradually weakening as the LLJ wanes and
the upper trough shifts eastward. Nevertheless, there exists the
opportunity for heavy rainfall and flooding owing to both the slow
cell motion, interacting cells, and training convection. The
residual convective cloud debris will likely temper highs today as
what happened yesterday south of I-70. Have lowered highs into
the mid to upper 80s--coolest in the east where the clouds should
linger the longest. Attention then turns to the potential for
redevelopment in east-central Kansas later this afternoon
attendant with the H500 wave. However, even at this close of a
time range, there exists modest differences in the placement of
this wave between various solutions. Given the slight eastward
displacement of the ongoing convection compared to the 00Z
initializations, the H500 wave axis may be slightly further east
as well. Latest runs of the HRRR are coming into agreement with
this philosophy--developing convection primarily east of Topeka.
The best chance for any redevelopment in the forecast area will be
before 00Z, after which the threat should shift further east
ahead of subsidence on the backside of the trough axis.

Confidence in the convective threat forecast drops steadily going
into the tonight period. From a synoptic/mesoscale standpoint,
the threat for storms should increase between 00-06Z in central
Kansas, closer to the juxtaposition of a developing H950-H850
LLJ/theta-e corridor and a very weak PV lobe working through the
southwesterly flow along the western flank of a weak H500
shortwave ridge axis (upstream of the aforementioned trough axis
along the KS/MO border). How this convection evolves is rather
uncertain, with widely varying output amongst the convective
allowing and parameterizing guidance. There is some general
agreement in a MCC developing along the apex of the LLJ and
working east/southeast along the H850 MUCAPE/theta-e gradient, but
most recent solutions push its arrival towards sunrise on Friday.
Did maintain some PoPs after 06Z to account for the uncertainty
in this forecast, but if the current trends hold out, much of the
area could see a dry night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

Multiple rounds of showers and storms are forecast through much
of next week with seasonal summertime temperatures.

The overall synoptic pattern will undergo little chance over the
next week. A gradual flattening of the stagnant Southeast U.S.
ridge axis coupled with a low-amplitude shortwave trough
progressing through the northern High Plains should usher a weak
surface baroclinic zone southeastward into the forecast area late
Friday afternoon/night. This boundary will serve as the best
threat for thunderstorms, but warm sector convection--or remnant
convection from the previous night--cannot be ruled out during
the day on Friday with MLCINH eroding after 18Z Friday in most NAM
bufr profiles in NE Kansas. A modest EML, coupled with surface
heating, will result in MLCAPE values of 2500-3000 J/kg.

However, as with other rounds of storms over the past week, the
lack of sufficient deep shear will limit the overall severe threat
to heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Looking through the weekend
and early next week, the aforementioned surface boundary meanders
in southern Kansas with the sloped H850 boundary positioned over
the forecast area. Multiple, ill-timed upper level perturbations
will bring continual rounds of thunderstorms to the area. The
longer range guidance have delayed the breakdown of the ridge axis
until late week at the earliest--the lack of continuity degrading
confidence in these solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

Widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms will persist for much
of the morning hours throughout the area, gradually decreasing in
coverage and intensity as the morning progresses. Expect
predominantly VFR/MVFR conditions in the precipitation, with
locally lower restrictions. Additional showers and storms are
possible this afternoon in east-central Kansas and late tonight in
north-central Kansas. Winds should be from the south at 10 to 15
kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Skow
LONG TERM...Skow
AVIATION...Skow

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
404 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-050915-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
404 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue this morning
and possibly redevelop later this afternoon and overnight. Areas
of heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will be possible
from this precipitation along with localized gusty winds.

Flooding of the Big Blue River and its tributaries up stream of
Tuttle Creek Lake will continue until water levels on the lake
come down. Flooding of the Delaware River upstream of Perry Lake
will also continue until water levels on the lake come down.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Flooding on the Big Blue and Delaware rivers is likely to persist
into next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

KDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
904 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0903 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 S OLSBURG             39.35N 96.63W
07/04/2019  M4.50 INCH       POTTAWATOMIE       KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
907 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0906 AM     HEAVY RAIN       CLIFTON                 39.57N 97.28W
07/04/2019  M5.47 INCH       WASHINGTON         KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
924 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0923 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 W OLSBURG             39.43N 96.64W
07/04/2019  M3.50 INCH       POTTAWATOMIE       KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
933 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NE CARLTON            38.73N 97.24W
07/04/2019  M6.10 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION KS-DK-11 HOPE 9.4 WNW.

&&

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