River Flood Warning 126, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
639 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Main concern this afternoon and evening will be convection rapidly
developing across the area. Latest satellite trends show building
cumulus along a frontal boundary across central Kansas as well as a
northward moving warm front across east central Kansas. These were
developing in areas of deep moisture convergence, especially just
north of the surface low in south central Kansas. Good deep moisture
advection was occurring across eastern Kansas at 19Z and surface dew
points have risen into the mid and upper 70s across east central
Kansas. The atmosphere was becoming increasingly unstable with
SBCAPE exceeding 4000 J/kg across much of the CWA at 19Z. Effective
shear of 30 to 45 kts was observed with the highest across north
central Kansas. Some backing of the low level winds in central and
north central Kansas will locally enhance low level helicity so
cannot rule out an isolated tornado.

Also along with the severe threat of winds and hail will be locally
heavy rainfall potential. As stated above good deep moisture flux
into eastern Kansas will make for efficient precipitation potential
where storms could quickly produce 1 to 2 inches of rainfall.
precipitable water values look to rise to near 1.8 inches across the
area. Expect one round this evening and then a second toward sunrise
from an MCS from western Kansas. Given the amount of moisture
expected have decided to issue a flash flood watch for much of the
area through 1 PM Sunday. May need to possibly extend parts of east
central Kansas longer depending on where the frontal boundary is
located. Overall severe threat could be minimized if morning
convective debris limits destabilization in the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Majority of the active convection should be well east and southeast
of the area by Sunday evening.  Axis of short-wave trough still
upstream by 00Z Monday with strengthening upper-level jet rotating
northeastward toward eastern Nebraska by 06z Monday.  Significant
westerly component to low-level winds Sunday evening, but appears
enough lingering modest instability could be in place for some
scattered evening convection, primarily across northeast and east-
central Kansas.

Seasonably cool and dry day for Monday.  Increasingly moist and
conditionally unstable air begins to return Monday night.  Despite
decent low-level theta-e advection, soundings look generally
unsupportive of convection until later Tuesday.  By that time,
typical summer airmass in place with abundant CAPE and only limited
convective inhibition, but also not much in the way of any
substantial source of initiation.  GFS does kick out some modest QPF
late Tuesday. There may be a very weak boundary near KS/NE border
then, and going forecast has this well-covered with low-chance PoPs.

Wed-Fri look more like summer with slowly rising mid-level heights
and weakening flow. Could be some isolated late-afternoon/early-
evening thunderstorm activity as mid-level temps don't become
prohibitively warm through the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Clusters of TSRA are expected to continue at or in vicinity of
terminals throughout the overnight period. Highest confidence
in reduced categories is through 06Z before the first wave exits
eastward. Short term models are trying to lift another wave of
TSRA during the morning period, but there is still some
uncertainty with coverage. Behind the departing sfc trough, light
southerly winds veer towards the southwest towards the end of the
period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for KSZ010>012-
022>024-026-035>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Manion
AVIATION...Prieto

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
342 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-232045-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
342 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Storms are expected this afternoon and tonight. These storms may
become severe with large hail and damaging winds. In addition,
heavy rainfall could result in flash flooding and a flash flood
watch is in effect for much of the area. A tornado cannot be
ruled out this afternoon and evening.

Flooding along several rivers will continue into next week.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Another round of severe storms is possible Sunday along with
locally heavy rainfall in the morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed this afternoon or tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
847 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

KSZ026-039-040-054>056-058-230215-
Coffey-Shawnee-Lyon-Jefferson-Douglas-Franklin-Osage-
847 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...SOUTHERN
JEFFERSON...SOUTHEASTERN SHAWNEE...DOUGLAS...OSAGE...NORTHWESTERN
COFFEY AND LYON COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

At 847 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking winds surging ahead of
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near McLouth to 7
miles west of Olpe. Movement was southeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Southeastern Topeka, Lawrence, Emporia, Baldwin City, Osage City,
Carbondale, Oskaloosa, Tecumseh, Eudora, Richland, Overbrook, Lyndon,
Centropolis, Lebo, Burlingame, Perry, McLouth, Pomona, Scranton and
Lecompton.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 128 and 163.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 117 and 158, and between mile
markers 179 and 205.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3813 9596 3817 9596 3817 9636 3842 9635
      3929 9532 3926 9518 3897 9519 3895 9509
      3899 9506 3889 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 301DEG 21KT 3919 9516 3828 9631

Skow

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
906 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

KSZ040-054>056-058-059-230300-
Coffey-Lyon-Douglas-Franklin-Osage-Anderson-
906 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FRANKLIN...NORTHWESTERN
ANDERSON...SOUTHEASTERN DOUGLAS...SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...COFFEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN LYON COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

At 905 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking winds surging ahead of
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 3 miles west of
Eudora to 6 miles northwest of Madison. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Southeastern Lawrence, Ottawa, Baldwin City, Burlington, Eudora,
Wellsville, Centropolis, Lebo, Pomona, Waverly, Richmond,
Williamsburg, New Strawn, Quenemo, Melvern, Hartford, Gridley,
Princeton, Rantoul and Olivet.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 148 and 198.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3817 9596 3817 9622 3898 9515 3895 9509
      3897 9506 3850 9507 3805 9569 3804 9596
TIME...MOT...LOC 0205Z 284DEG 26KT 3895 9517 3818 9624

Skow

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
945 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0941 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NW LAWRENCE           38.97N 95.28W
06/22/2019                   DOUGLAS            KS   PUBLIC

            WATER RUNNING OVER THE ROADWAY AT 6TH AND
            KASOLD, 6TH AND MONTERREY WAY, AND PETERSON
            ROAD EAST OF KASOLD. SEVERAL VEHICLES ARE
            STALLED IN THE WATER.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
947 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0944 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NNW LAWRENCE          38.99N 95.28W
06/22/2019  M3.18 INCH       DOUGLAS            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            STORM TOTAL AND STILL RAINING.

&&

JP

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