River Flood Warning 103, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
650 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

Heavy rainfall and the potential for flash flooding increases late
this afternoon and evening as thunderstorms are expected to develop
in a warm and moist environment ahead of a cold front tracking east
through the area. Latest water vapor imagery shows a  mid level
trough lifting into the southern and central plains. Meanwhile
strong moisture advection ahead of the front has raised PWAT
values between 1.5 and 1.7 inches. These numbers are expected to
rise close to 2 inches this evening, 3 standard deviations above
normal. As thunderstorms continue to develop this afternoon and
evening along and south of Interstate 70 corridor, convergence
along the front maximizes with a strong mid level jet streak to
favor multiple clusters of strong to severe storms training over
portions of southeast Kansas this afternoon and evening. Training
convection is likely to result in widespread 2 to 3 inches in the
aforementioned areas with locally higher amounts up to 4 inches
possible. With the favorable environment for heavy thunderstorms
and potential for flash flooding, there is a high risk currently
in effect through tonight for areas south of the Interstate 70
corridor.

In addition to the heavy rainfall, strong effective bulk shear and
strong mid level lapse rates will keep the risk for the large hail
and damaging wind gusts the primary threats. Isolated tornadoes
cannot be ruled out given the decent low level wind profiles on
forecast soundings and low LCLs spreading northward as surface
dewpoints are progged to reach near 70 degrees by 00Z. The tornado
threat persists through early evening while the hail and wind
threat continues overnight as a strong low level jet veers
southwestward overnight, maintaining an environment of 0-6 km
bulk shear values near 40 kts with ample MUCAPE to work with.

Convection moves out Saturday morning with expected clearing through
early afternoon before the next round of strong to severe storms
arrives in the late afternoon and evening hours. Storms are expected
to develop along and south of a front with very high sfc based cape
values with bulk shear up to 40 kts. Severe weather will be likely
through the evening with all hazards being possible, in addition to
the heavy rainfall. High PWAT values and potential for heavy
thunderstorms lead to decent confidence in the flash flood potential
to persist through Sunday morning so have extended the Flash Flood
Watch for the entire area through this period.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

Additional rounds of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are possible
again Sunday evening as another mid level wave lifts across Kansas.
Exact placement of the heaviest rainfall is still uncertain given
the discrepancies between guidance. Upper low matures on Monday with
a brief drying period through Monday evening. Chances for thunder
increase once again Tuesday afternoon across far eastern areas as
the upper low shifts east and out of the central plains area by
Wednesday. Northwest flow aloft ensues with upper ridging across the
Pacific Northwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

Scattered TSRA is expected at TOP and FOE through 12Z and MHK
through 04Z then SHRA thereafter. Isolated convection expected
after 12Z or just possibly showers. VFR cigs are expected outside
of convection. MVFR cigs are expected to develop across the area
after 12Z with improvement to VFR near the end of the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

SHORT TERM...Prieto
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...53

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
321 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-252030-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
321 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms will redevelop this afternoon. The
best chance for strong to severe thunderstorms will be across
east central and portions of northeast KS this afternoon and
evening. The primary hazards with any severe thunderstorms will be
large hail, damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall. An isolated
tornado or two is possible south of Interstate 70.

The Flash Flood Watch was expanded to include the entire area,
from this morning through Sunday morning. Flooding is especially
dangerous at night when flood waters are harder to see.

River flooding will also continue this evening and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms continues Saturday
through Tuesday, with heavy rainfall and flooding also a hazard
with these storms. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes
are also possible Saturday late afternoon and evening.

River flooding is expected to continue through much of the
week and into the Memorial Day holiday weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

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