Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Topeka, KS

013 
WGUS73 KTOP 040405 RRA
FFSTOP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1105 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

KSC003-059-040415-
/O.CAN.KTOP.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-190604T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Franklin-Anderson-
1105 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN AND NORTH
CENTRAL ANDERSON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

Flood waters have receded. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3838 9513 3833 9519 3832 9531 3857 9523
      3861 9507 3844 9507

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
639 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

The upper air pattern remains relatively unchanged with a upper
trough over the southwest with trough in the northeast and northwest
to nearly zonal flow across the central Plains. Outflow from morning
convection over Nebraska has pushed south to near I-70 in northeast
Kansas. Water vapor loops suggests that an embedded wave/MCV was
progressing southeast across southeast Nebraska and northeast corner
of Kansas this afternoon. A similar situation was occurring across
eastern Oklahoma this afternoon. CAMs develop some isolated
convection late this afternoon across northeast and east central
Kansas. The northern convection associated the mcv was spreading
eastward into Missouri and Iowa this afternoon. There may be some
isolated storms that develop near the outflow boundary and also the
isolated convection across east central Kansas within weak
isentropic lift/waa regime. The convection looks to last through
early evening before moving out.

The next round of convection is expected later tonight from storms
that develop across the high plains and propagate east southeast
across Kansas. Have timed this mainly after midnight across north
central Kansas and then progressing southeast as the low level jet
veers to the southwest. Precipitation should move out by late
morning Tuesday in east central Kansas. Isolated convection is then
possible from late afternoon into the evening hours. Soundings
suggest that an EML will be present to cap off surface based
convection. If a storm is able to develop it should rapidly develop
strong updrafts and have the potential for large hail and damaging
winds. Given moisture present across the southern Plains and
advecting northward into Kansas some moderate rainfall up to around
an inch will be possible. Best chances overnight Tuesday look to lay
across east central Kansas along a theta ridge in the 925-850mb
layer and in zone of surface to 850 mb convergence.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

On Wednesday, a mid-level trough axis will be centered over New
Mexico with attendant surface troughing along the lee of the
Rockies. The aforementioned upper low will slowly traverse the area
by Saturday, allowing for continued rain chances into the end of the
week and early part of the weekend. Thunderstorm/shower activity is
possible through the week as the upper low moves through the area,
however, sources of lift will be dependent on lingering boundaries
which are uncertain at this time. If storms are able to initiate,
modest MLCAPE will allow for updrafts capable of producing large
hail and damaging winds. Low effective shear will inhibit any
organization, and will most likely result in pulse-like
convection. Confidence in overall intensity and coverage of severe
storms throughout the week are limited at this time.

After Saturday, a shortwave ridge will be in place over the CWA,
allowing for drier conditions. Models suggest that a frontal
boundary could move through the area by the end of the period,
bringing in cooler temperatures and the potential for showers.
Temperatures should remain in the 80s and low temperatures should
stay around the mid-to-low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

For the 00z TAFs, scattered storms will be developing near
KTOP/KFOE into early this evening, with borderline MVFR cigs
possible. Additional thunderstorm chances are possible at the TAF
sites overnight into Tuesday morning, but there is still some
uncertainty with the coverage of thunderstorm development so have
kept VCTS. Cannot rule out the potential for additional isolated
thunderstorm development into Tuesday afternoon, however
confidence is too low to mention in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Bunker/53
AVIATION...Hennecke

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
331 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-042045-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
331 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

There is a chance for isolated storms to develop this afternoon
across northeast and east central Kansas. These storms may be
strong with small hail and gusty winds.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop in western Kansas and move
into the outlook area overnight. Severe storms are unlikely,
however a few stronger updrafts may produce gusty winds and small
hail.

Flooding on area rivers continues through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A few severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and
evening for most of the outlook area. While details still remain
uncertain on development and coverage of storms, damaging winds
and large hail are the main hazards.

Flooding on area rivers will likely persist into mid week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
512 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

KSZ040-032230-
Douglas-
512 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM CDT...

At 512 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
southern Lawrence, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lawrence.

This includes Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 198 and 205.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3887 9520 3892 9536 3903 9534 3904 9530
      3903 9529 3905 9528 3904 9527 3904 9519
      3896 9518 3898 9516 3897 9513 3897 9511
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 210DEG 13KT 3894 9528

Blair

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
538 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

KSZ055-056-032315-
Franklin-Osage-
538 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL FRANKLIN AND
SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 538 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Williamsburg, moving north at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Williamsburg, Quenemo and Melvern.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 160 and 179.

LAT...LON 3843 9546 3843 9551 3844 9565 3862 9561
      3856 9533
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 201DEG 11KT 3847 9552

Blair

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
603 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

KSZ026-032330-
Jefferson-
603 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY
UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

At 602 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
McLouth, moving north at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
McLouth.

LAT...LON 3913 9519 3909 9519 3914 9528 3934 9524
      3933 9518 3913 9518
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 201DEG 10KT 3918 9522

Blair

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
646 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             1 N MCLOUTH             39.22N 95.21W
06/03/2019  E0.88 INCH       JEFFERSON          KS   PUBLIC

            NEAR THE JUNCTION OF K-92 AND 94TH ROAD.

&&

ACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
753 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NW WESTPHALIA         38.23N 95.55W
06/03/2019                   COFFEY             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A FEW INCHES OF WATER FLOWING OVER WAYSIDE
            RD BETWEEN 14TH RD AND 15TH RD NEAR THE
            COFFEY CO AND ANDERSON CO LINE.

&&

ACH