Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Topeka, KS

730 
WGUS73 KTOP 302214
FFSTOP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
514 PM CDT Thu May 30 2019

KSC013-085-131-310330-
/O.CON.KTOP.FF.W.0030.000000T0000Z-190531T0330Z/
/00000.U.DM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NEMAHA-JACKSON-BROWN-
514 PM CDT Thu May 30 2019

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR A DAM FAILURE REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
1030 PM CDT FOR EAST CENTRAL NEMAHA...NORTHEASTERN JACKSON AND
SOUTHWESTERN BROWN COUNTIES...

At 510 PM CDT local officials reported the dam 1 mile south of 
Sabetha could fail in the next couple hours causing flash flooding 
downstream on the Delaware River.

Locations impacted include...
U.S. Highway 36, 3 miles south of the dam and the Kickapoo 
Reservation. 

No flooding is occurring yet, but if or when it does flash flooding 
will occur with the water flowing south away from Sabetha down the 
Delaware river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

&&

LAT...LON 3989 9577 3979 9568 3967 9562 3961 9556
      3957 9556 3964 9567 3974 9572 3981 9581
      3990 9586

$$

533 
WGUS73 KTOP 310326
FFSTOP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1026 PM CDT Thu May 30 2019

KSC013-085-131-310335-
/O.EXP.KTOP.FF.W.0030.000000T0000Z-190531T0330Z/
/00000.0.DM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Nemaha-Jackson-Brown-
1026 PM CDT Thu May 30 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL NEMAHA...NORTHEASTERN
JACKSON AND SOUTHWESTERN BROWN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1030 PM CDT...

The failure of the dam approximately 2 miles south of downtown 
Sabetha is no longer determined to be imminent, however there 
continue to be indications the dam may fail in the next few days. 

LAT...LON 3989 9577 3979 9568 3967 9562 3961 9556
      3957 9556 3964 9567 3974 9572 3981 9581
      3990 9586

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1217 PM CDT Thu May 30 2019

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019

Early this morning the mid-level low was situated over eastern
Nebraska and will progress southeastward into Missouri through the
day.  This passing mid-level low will contribute to some low/mid
clouds streaming across northeast KS and cannot rule out the
potential for a few isolated showers and storms to develop and clip
far northeast KS during the afternoon hours.  Otherwise, expect a
very pleasant day across the outlook area as surface high pressure
extends into central to southeast KS, with mostly sunny skies and
highs rising into the mid/upper 70s.  Models show the center of the
surface high progressing south of the area by tonight, with mostly
clear skies and light westerly winds aiding in overnight low
temperatures dropping into the mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019

Dry conditions will continue into Friday as the region remains under
the influence of surface high pressure. With the surface high
tracking into the southeastern U.S., mostly sunny skies and surface
winds shifting to the southwest will aid in decent warm-air
advection through the day with afternoon highs soaring into the
low/mid 80s.

A more unsettled weather pattern is expected by this weekend and
will continue into early next week as models show several embedded
shortwaves developing within the mid-level pattern with a broad mid-
level ridge stretched across the southern U.S. and a mid-level
trough over the Great Lakes region.  These embedded waves will
contribute to the development of scattered off-and-on shower and
thunderstorm chances, but, at this time, models still do not really
show any large, well-organized systems developing.  However, a cold
front does look to track southeastward across the CWA Saturday
afternoon, with enough favorable instability and wind shear to
possibly support a few strong to marginally-severe storms.
Otherwise, there are still model discrepancies with the timing,
tracking, and strength details of any embedded waves that develop
and track near the forecast area through early next week, so only
have slight to chance PoPs in the forecast. Even though any
precipitation that develops during this period looks to be fairly
scattered, these additional chances for showers and storms may
continue to contribute to ongoing river flooding for some locations
across the outlook area. Temperatures this weekend into the early
half of next week should remain mild and fairly steady with highs in
the 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu May 30 2019

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Scattered
afternoon cumulus will dissipate by sunset, with northwesterly
winds gradually becoming southeasterly by mid-morning Friday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Blair

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
347 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-310900-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
347 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Flooding on area rivers continues today through tonight. Otherwise,
no hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A few strong to severe storms will be possible Saturday afternoon
and evening across northeast and east central Kansas, with large
hail and damaging winds being the primary hazards.

Flooding on area rivers will likely persist into this weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep