Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Topeka, KS

824 
WGUS73 KTOP 010154
FFSTOP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
854 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

KSC003-031-059-111-139-010330-
/O.CON.KTOP.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-190501T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Franklin-Anderson-Osage-Coffey-Lyon-
854 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN...ANDERSON...SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...COFFEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN LYON COUNTIES...

At 848 PM CDT, emergency management has reported numerous road 
closures across the warned area due to the heavy rain that fell 
earlier this afternoon and evening. The heavy rainfall has moved 
east of the warned area and should allow for flood waters to recede 
through the evening and overnight. Several rivers across east 
central Kansas are in currently in or forecast to reach minor to 
moderate flood stage overnight. This will likely result in 
additional road closures.  

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Ottawa, Garnett, Burlington, Waverly, Richmond, Colony, Williamsburg,
New Strawn, Hartford, Gridley, Greeley, Princeton, Lane, Rantoul,
Westphalia, Kincaid, Lone Elm, Harris, John Redmond Reservoir and Le
Roy.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 162 and 185.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3817 9596 3817 9636 3866 9507 3804 9508
      3804 9596

$$

Baerg

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
337 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

Main upper trough axis remain well west of the state early this
afternoon with persistent convection downstream over the Central
Plains as moisture continues to flow over the old boundary. A
modest inverted trough over eastern Kansas has brought backed
winds to its east, though ML CAPE values remain meager in the
continued rain-cooled air. Additionally, a weak MCV and associated
gravity wave was moving through the northeast quadrant of the
state and should further stabilize the lower levels. Despite these
factors, there remains small potential for modest near surface-
based instability to develop over the next hours in far
southeastern locations which could present a more robust severe
weather concern, but generally expect the main severe weather
hazard for the remainder of this event to be elevated storms and
hail with MU CAPE still near 1000 J/kg over southern locations and
the mid-level jet max still approaching. Much of east-central
Kansas has seen very little in the way of persistent breaks in
precipitation and this area will be the main area of concern for
flash, areal, and river flooding, though as the upper trough
continues to weaken as it pushes into the upper Mississippi Valley
tonight, precip will end mainly west to east this evening. A few
showers could impact far northern areas into the overnight as
well.

Confidence in Wednesday's forecast is muted as the next upper wave
approaches late in the day and low cloud may be rather consistent.
The likelihood for the frontal returning north to east-central
Kansas is not high given lots of cold-sector precip today and
broad stratus again in place, but will keep some thunder mention
in southern locations, with less instability and proximity to the
next wave keeping a shower chance in northern locations.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

A soggy pattern is expected to continue into the latter half of the
week as another batch of rain and storms is expected early Thursday.
At 00Z Thursday, an area of surface low pressure will be located
near the OK/TX panhandles with a surface trough/front extending
east/northeastward into southern KS and central MO. Mid level ascent
north of the system in response to a passing shortwave trough aloft
will interact with residual low level moisture to create an area of
rain and embedded thunderstorms which will move across KS Wednesday
night and early Thursday morning. Another widespread half an inch of
rain is possible during this timeframe across the CWA. Indications
are that the rain will clear quickly to the east as a 1024 mb
surface ridge builds in from the northwest. Clouds should also begin
to clear, especially in north-central KS, due to subsidence under
the ridge Thursday afternoon. Unfortunately, the ridge does not look
to reside in the area for long with models progressively advancing
it to the east as an upper level trough moves across the northern
tier of the CONUS on Friday. Forcing for ascent does not currently
look overly impressive ahead of that wave, however, some light rain
will be possible during the day Friday in northeast KS. QPF amounts
Friday will be minimal, likely less than one tenth of an inch.

Long range models are hinting at a brief break in the precip chances
on Saturday before a stronger northern tier system brings a weak
front southward into the region. With that, we will have to monitor
for a chance for more rain on Sunday. Active weather could just
continue into next week as well with several long range models
showing an amplified troughing pattern across the western CONUS
setting up early in the week. Waves of energy ahead of that feature
could interact with surface fronts to keep the forecast active.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

Limiting conditions expected to persist for this forecast with
terminals in cold sector and low-level moisture remaining in place
through at least 14Z Wednesday. Periods of showers and
thunderstorms should continue for much of the first several hours
with some variations in flight conditions around them likely.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for KSZ024-026-
037>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...65

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
348 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-012100-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
348 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the early evening
but should diminish in the late evening and overnight. A few
severe thunderstorms remain possible in east-central Kansas with
large hail being the primary hazard. A small risk for a tornado
continues southeast of Interstate 35 into the early evening.
Periods of moderate to heavy rain will fall on saturated ground
and may lead to flooding, particularly in east-central Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and
evening for much of the area. A few severe storms could impact
portions of east central Kansas. Large hail and damaging winds
will be the main hazards. Additionally, localized flash flooding
will be possible where thunderstorms occur.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1044 AM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1043 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 S OZAWKIE             39.18N 95.48W
04/30/2019  M1.48 INCH       JEFFERSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1203 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1202 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NW EMPORIA            38.41N 96.20W
04/30/2019  M2.10 INCH       LYON               KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TOTAL SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

ST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
420 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     FLOOD            4 WNW LYNDON            38.64N 95.75W
04/30/2019                   OSAGE              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            K31 HIGHWAY BETWEEN OSAGE CITY AND U.S. 75
            HIGHWAY CLOSED DUE TO WATER OVER THE ROAD.

&&

JMW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
421 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0409 PM     FLOOD            KINCAID                 38.08N 95.15W
04/30/2019                   ANDERSON           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            K31 HIGHWAY AT KINCAID IS CLOSED DUE TO
            WATER OVER THE ROAD.

&&

JMW