Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Great Falls, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
531 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2019

Aviation and Forecast updated

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper disturbance will move through the region tonight,
producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could
be severe this evening over Central MT. Expect drier and warmer
conditions to move into the region over the weekend. It remains
warm on Monday, but showers and thunderstorms return by Monday
night and then continue for the rest of next week, along with
slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.UPDATE...
530 PM Update...Forecast for tornado watch for the eastern
portions of the region. A few showers/isolated thunderstorms west
of a line from Great Falls to Havre. Stronger storms over the
eastern portions. Meagher, Judith Basin, Fergus, Blaine counties
have the greatest impacts and potential for severe/tornadic
storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 530 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2019 (00Z TAF issuance)

Main concern is the potential for severe thunderstorms this
evening, with the strongest storms mainly east of a line from
Standford to Havre. Damaging winds/large hail the main threat,
with a possible tornado around Lewistown. Most of the severe
weather exits the region by 05z, with scattered showers
continuing until around 12z Saturday. Generally VFR conditions
expected by late Saturday morning across the region and through
Saturday afternoon. Mountains/passes obscured at times through 15z
because of clouds/storms. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 200 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2019/
Tonight through Sunday...With an upper level trof moving through
the region tonight, expect another round of showers and
thunderstorms. Some storms could be severe this evening,
especially in the Lewistown area. The Lewistown area has had the
risk increased to Enhanced, with large hail and a tornado possible
once again this evening. Expect scattered showers to continue to
move from southwest to northeast overnight, thus a swath of
precipitation is likely from Helena northeast to Havre,
especially after Midnight. For Saturday, much of the region should
turn drier and begin a slow warming trend. The NBM has showers
over Central MT, but confidence is low for those developing on
Saturday afternoon. Temperatures continue to warm for Sunday, with
a few storms once again possible by late in the day. A marginal
risk for severe thunderstorms is in place for our far eastern
portions of the region.

Monday through Friday...The warming trend continues into Monday,
as weak shortwave ridging develops over the region. However, the
southwest flow will allow for thunderstorms to develop by Monday
evening. The threat for thunderstorms will then continue for much
of the rest of next week. Both Wednesday and the 4th of July are
now looking a bit more unsettled, and pops have been increased
to near likely for portions of Central MT per the latest NBM.
Pops could be increased elsewhere in the next few days, should
this slow moving trof develop per the GFS/EC models. Overall
temperatures are likely to be below normal starting on Tuesday.
Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  75  49  78 /  70  20  10  10
CTB  45  73  44  76 /  30   0   0   0
HLN  50  78  50  82 /  60  20  10  10
BZN  48  78  48  81 /  20  20  10  10
WEY  39  73  40  75 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  45  74  46  77 /  10  10   0  10
HVR  51  76  49  78 /  70   0  10   0
LWT  48  73  49  73 /  70  50  30  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
545 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2019

MTZ050-290000-
Judith Basin MT-
545 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL JUDITH BASIN COUNTY UNTIL
600 PM MDT...

At 545 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Stanford, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Stanford, Windham and Benchland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight MDT for central
Montana.

LAT...LON 4693 11030 4701 11043 4724 11022 4709 10988
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 223DEG 40KT 4705 11026

Moldan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
600 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2019

MTZ050-051-290015-
Fergus MT-Judith Basin MT-
600 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2019

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 600 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Stanford, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Windham and Benchland.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight MDT for central
Montana.

LAT...LON 4697 11022 4702 11032 4732 11003 4712 10975
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 230DEG 31KT 4709 11012

Moldan

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
605 PM MDT FRI JUN 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             11 N MARTINSDALE        46.61N 110.28W
06/28/2019  E0.75 INCH       MEAGHER            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOSTLY HALF INCH HAIL, WITH A FEW PENNY SIZE
            HAIL. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

BRUSDA

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