Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
243 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019

.SHORT TERM (Today - Sunday)...
Mid-upper level ridging and associated broad surface high pressure
continues to extend westward over northern Florida and along the
northern gulf coast through Sunday. This will keep us in Florida Sea
Breeze Regime 6 with a predominant southeast wind flow between 4-10
knots. Similar to the past couple of days, we can expect the west
coast sea breeze to push inland each day between 10-30 miles during
the early to mid afternoon hours. The latest HRRR guidance has the
initial showers and storms moving in from the east-southeast early
afternoon, followed by west coast sea breeze showers and storms
firing up by mid afternoon. The boundary collisions could produce
some strong storms with gusty winds, heavy downpours, frequent
lightning as well as a chance for hail. The highest coverage of
storms early afternoon will be over the interior with storms moving
back toward the west coast late afternoon into the evening. Similar
conditions can be expected on Sunday. Daytime high temps will reach
the low to mid 90's with heat indices between 100-103 degrees and
overnight lows in the mid to upper 70's.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday night - Next Saturday)... The synoptic pattern
will remain unchanged through Tuesday. The upper ridge and
surface high continues to extend over northern Florida keeping us
in a southeast flow pattern through late Monday into Tuesday. At
that time, the ridge shifts south as a positively tilted trough
over the Great Lakes begins to swing east-southeast over the
eastern U.S. On the surface, an area of low pressure over New
England stretches a frontal boundary southwest along the east
coast then westward to Texas. This boundary will stall out and
linger over southern GA/northern FL through the end of next week.
Interaction between the boundary over northern FL and the ridge to
the south will bring a shift in winds putting us in Florida Sea
Breeze Regime 4 with winds out of the southwest at 4-10 knots.
Under this pattern, scattered showers and storms will develop over
the coastal waters/coastline early morning and move inland during
the afternoon/evening hours. The highest coverage will be over
the far inland counties mid afternoon with improving conditions
along the coastline later in the day. This pattern will continue
through the end of next week. Temperatures will run around average
through the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail for most of the day with southeast winds
less than 10 knots, turning onshore within the next couple of hours
with an afternoon seabreeze at all terminals except KLAL, which will
remain mostly easterly less than 10 knots. Radar is already showing
TSRA/SHRA moving west through the interior, so will hold VCTS at all
terminals through 02Z. Have also put TEMPO groups at all terminals
for brief periods of MVFR/IFR for low CIGs and VSBY as will as gusty
winds up to 35 knots possible in passing storms. Winds will become
light and variable less than 5 knots once again after 03Z tonight.
No other aviation impacts expected.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure continues to ridge over the area producing pleasant
boating conditions over the coastal waters. Winds remain southeast
10 knots or less with a shift to onshore close to the coast each
afternoon through the weekend and seas will remain less than 2 feet.
The high pressure ridge will shift farther south by Tuesday next
week as a trough moves toward the eastern U.S. This will cause a
shift in the winds to the west-southwest at 10 knots or less. The
only hazards will be daily scattered thunderstorms, which will
produce gusty winds, choppy seas and dangerous lightning in the
vicinity of these storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms can be expected each
day across west central and southwest Florida. These daily showers
and storms combined with high humidity levels and winds less than 10
knots will preclude any fire weather impacts over the next several
days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  76  91  76  91 /  30  40  30  40
FMY  75  91  75  91 /  20  50  40  50
GIF  75  93  74  93 /  30  60  10  60
SRQ  75  91  75  91 /  30  30  40  40
BKV  73  92  72  92 /  30  40  20  40
SPG  76  91  76  91 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

SHORT/LONG TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT...57/McMichael

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