Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
247 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SATURDAY)...
Mid-upper level ridging and associated broad surface high pressure
continues to extend over the Florida peninsula and into the Gulf of
Mexico through Saturday. This will keep us in Florida Sea Breeze
Regime 6 with a predominant southeast wind flow between 4-10 knots.
With this relatively low wind speed, we can expect the west coast sea
breeze to push inland each day between 10-30 miles during the early
to mid afternoon hours. The initial showers and storms will move in
from the southeast early afternoon, followed by west coast sea
breeze showers and storms by mid afternoon. The boundary collisions
could produce some strong storms with gusty winds, heavy downpours
and frequent lightning. The highest coverage of storms early
afternoon will be over the interior with some storms moving back
toward the coast late afternoon into the evening. Similar conditions
can be expected on Saturday. Daytime high temps will reach the low
to mid 90's with heat indices between 100-103 degrees and overnight
lows in the mid to upper 70's.

&&

.MID/LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - NEXT SATURDAY)...
The synoptic pattern remains unchanged to start the mid/long term
period. The upper ridge and surface high continues to extend over
Florida keeping us in a southeast flow pattern through late Monday
into Tuesday. At that time, the ridge shifts south as a broad upper
trough over the Great Lakes begins to swing east-southeast over the
eastern U.S. On the surface, an area of low pressure over New
England stretches a frontal boundary southwest along the east coast
then westward to Texas. This boundary will stall out and linger over
southern GA/northern FL through the end of next week. This will
bring a shift in winds putting us in Florida Sea Breeze Regime 4
with winds out of the southwest at 4-10 knots. Under this pattern,
scattered showers and storms will develop over the coastal
waters/coastline early morning and move inland during the
afternoon/evening hours. The highest coverage will be over the far
inland counties mid afternoon with improving conditions along the
coastline later in the day. This pattern will continue through the
end of next week. Temperatures will run around average for the
remainder of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Predominant VFR conditions with light onshore winds 10 knots or less
with an afternoon seabreeze. Radar is mostly quiet now, but
scattered TSRA/SHRA will develop between 18-21Z along the Florida
west coast, so will hold VCTS at all terminals through 00Z and
VCSH until 03Z with some brief periods of MVFR/IFR for low CIGs
and VSBY as well as gusty winds possible in passing storms. Winds
will become light and variable once again after 03Z tonight. No
other aviation impacts expected.

 &&

.MARINE...
High pressure continues to ridge over the area producing pleasant
boating conditions over the coastal waters. Winds remain southeast
10 knots or less with a shift to onshore close to the coast each
afternoon through the weekend and seas will remain less than 2 feet.
The high pressure ridge will shift farther south by Tuesday next
week as a trough moves toward the eastern U.S. This will cause a
shift in the winds to the west-southwest at 10 knots or less. The
only hazards will be daily scattered thunderstorms, which will
produce gusty winds, choppy seas and dangerous lightning in the
vicinity of these storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms can be expected each
day across west central and southwest Florida. These daily showers
and storms combined with high humidity levels and winds less than 10
knots will preclude any fire weather impacts over the next several
days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  76  91  77  91 /  10  30  20  40
FMY  76  91  75  90 /  10  50  30  40
GIF  75  93  75  92 /  30  50  10  50
SRQ  76  91  75  91 /  10  20  20  40
BKV  74  92  73  92 /  10  30  20  40
SPG  76  91  77  92 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

Wynn

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