Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
245 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2019

.DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge remains in place over the southeast U.S. through the
end of the week and into the weekend. By early Monday morning, a
positively tilted upper trough moves southeast through the Great
Lakes region gradually becoming the dominant upper feature over the
eastern U.S. by Tuesday next week. On the surface, high pressure
near Bermuda ridges west-southwest over Florida and into the Gulf of
Mexico keeping a predominant east-southeast wind flow over the
region. There will be slight fluctuations of the ridge axis from
north-south over Florida, but no significant change is expected
until early next week when an area of low pressure develops over the
mid-Atlantic region. This will likely push the ridge farther south
resulting in a more southwest onshore wind flow across the Florida
west coast. This will produce a change in shower/storm activity from
the afternoon/evening expected this week into the weekend to more of
a morning/early afternoon time frame for next week. Temperatures
will run right around average with daytime highs in the low to mid
90's and overnight lows in the mid 70's.

&&

.AVIATION...
Predominant VFR conditions with light onshore winds 10 knots or less
with an afternoon seabreeze. Radar is getting more active so will
hold scattered VCTS at all stations with TSRA/SHRA possible
through 00Z and VCSH through 03Z with some brief periods of MVFR
for low CIGs and VSBY as will as gusty winds possible in passing
storms. Winds will become light and variable once again after 03Z
tonight. No other aviation impacts expected.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure remains over the area producing pleasant boating conditions
over the gulf coast waters. Winds remain 10 knots or less through
the period with seas less than 2 feet. The only hazard will be
with isolated storms and enhanced sea breeze winds along the coast
each afternoon/evening. No other marine impacts expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms can be expected each
day across west central and southwest Florida. These daily showers
and storms combined with high humidity levels will preclude any fire
weather impacts over the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  77  92  77  91 /  40  50  40  40
FMY  76  91  76  91 /  40  50  10  50
GIF  75  93  76  93 /  20  60  10  70
SRQ  76  91  76  91 /  40  40  30  40
BKV  74  92  74  92 /  40  50  20  50
SPG  77  92  77  91 /  40  50  40  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT...69/Close

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
319 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2019

FLZ139-239-172000-
Coastal Levy FL-Inland Levy FL-
319 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LEVY COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM
EDT...

At 318 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Manattee Road to 15 miles west of Williston
Highlands. These storms were nearly stationary.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms...in
addition to frequent lightning. Localized street flooding from
heavy rainfall is possible due to the slow motion of the storms.

Locations impacted include...
Chiefland, Fowlers Bluff, Andrews, Manattee Road, Fanning Springs,
Otter Creek and Manatee Springs State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Ruskin.

&&

LAT...LON 2958 8282 2928 8258 2918 8287 2938 8306
      2940 8302 2942 8303 2942 8302 2945 8301
      2947 8298 2952 8298 2952 8297 2954 8298
      2956 8295 2958 8294 2959 8291
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 087DEG 3KT 2950 8292 2927 8277

TBW