Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
124 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019

.AVIATION...
04/18Z TAF cycle. TSRA ongoing near TPA/PIE and will spread to the
rest of the terminals through the afternoon with some TEMPO MVFR
20-23Z. TSRA end 02-03Z. Winds are or will shortly become SW then
W or NW toward evening. Light and VRBL overnight then SE or S aft
14Z.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 813 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019/

..HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON UNTIL 6 PM FOR HEAT INDICES OF 108 TO 112
   DEGREES...

UPDATE...
Latest RAP model has mid level ridging across the region through
this evening while at the surface high pressure in the Gulf of
Mexico moves toward the TX coast in response to Atlantic high
pressure building in from the east. This will shift prevailing
northeast and east winds to southeasterly - although becoming
westerly in an afternoon sea breeze. Forecast PWAT values will be
high...in a 1.9-2.0 inch range.

Another hot day is on tap with highs reaching the mid 90s and
resulting in heat indices of 108-112 degrees...with a heat
advisory in place. The abundant moisture and daytime heating will
support showers and thunderstorms with sea breeze boundaries
providing a focus. Coverage will be scattered to occasionally
numerous and concentrated along and east of the I-75 corridor.
Current forecast looks on track but may make minor adjustments
through out the morning.

MARINE...
Prevailing northeast and east winds become southeasterly...
although shifting to westerly in afternoon sea breezes. Main
concern will be isolated-scattered thunderstorms with higher
winds and seas.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  93  79  91  78 /  30  50  40  50
FMY  94  77  93  76 /  20  40  40  50
GIF  96  77  94  76 /  40  20  30  40
SRQ  92  78  92  77 /  40  40  40  50
BKV  95  75  93  74 /  50  40  50  50
SPG  93  80  91  78 /  30  50  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-
     Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-
     Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-
     Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland
     Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-
     Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.
&&

09/RKR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
154 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019

FLZ050-151-251-041845-
Coastal Hillsborough FL-Pinellas FL-Inland Hillsborough FL-
154 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PINELLAS AND
NORTHWESTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

At 154 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Citrus Park, or 7 miles northwest of Tampa. This storm was nearly
stationary.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tampa, Clearwater, Temple Terrace, Lutz, Keystone, Greater Northdale,
Tampa International Airport, Egypt Lake-Leto, Citrus Park, Greater
Carrollwood, Lake Magdalene, University, East Lake, West Park,
Oldsmar, Busch Gardens, University Of Tampa, Town N Country, Raymond
James Stadium and Ybor City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2817 8267 2817 8264 2812 8237 2793 8242
      2796 8268
TIME...MOT...LOC 1754Z 192DEG 1KT 2805 8255

TBW

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