Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
256 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019

.DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge moves northeast of the Bahamas as an
inverted upper trough moves westward across southern Florida
today and Saturday. East-southeast winds between these two
features will advect increasing moisture over the Florida
peninsula over the next several days. PW values have already
jumped up to 1.73 inches on this mornings sounding and is
expected to continue to increase to around 2 inches by the
weekend and into next week. As the upper trough moves
through the western Gulf of Mexico by Saturday evening, the
ridge slowly nudges back closer to Florida through the
weekend. This ridge becomes more elongated by Sunday
extending westward from the Bahamas, over southern Florida
and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The upper high further
builds over the eastern gulf by late Monday and Tuesday next
week extending from the Yucatan peninsula northward over
the southeast U.S. and will remain the dominant upper
feature through the end of next week.

On the surface, a trough of low pressure moves westward across
southern Florida later today and Saturday. This will bring increased
moisture, more cloud cover and higher rain chances (40-80 percent
POPs) into the weekend. Temperatures will be closer to average with
daytime highs in the upper 80's to low 90's and overnight lows in
the low to mid 70's through the weekend. As the wave moves west,
high pressure to the northeast off the Carolina coastline becomes
the dominant feature on Saturday and Sunday which will bring in
easterly winds across the peninsula. Continued high POPs during each
afternoon can be expected with showers/storms forming over the east
coast and transiting westward colliding with the west coast sea
breeze. Numerous showers and storms can be expected each afternoon
with some strong storms possible. High pressure builds over the
eastern gulf by late Sunday which will start the transition to more
of a west-northwest flow. This will allow for early showers/storms
along the west coast of Florida then transiting eastward through the
day.

&&

.AVIATION...
Overall VFR conditions expected through the period. Latest model
guidance has widespread TSRA/SHRA developing along the Florida west
coast over the next few hours so will hold VCTS at all terminals
with some possible brief periods of MVFR for low CIGs and VSBY in
passing storms. Will add TEMPO groups based on radar coverage
through the afternoon. Winds remain east-southeast at 10 knots or
less with higher gusts in the vicinity of any thunderstorms. No
other aviation impacts expected.

&&

.MARINE...
A trough of low pressure moves over southern Florida. This will
produce east-southeast winds and increasing rain chances today and
Saturday. As the wave moves farther west into the gulf, high
pressure builds to the northeast of Florida keeping an easterly flow
over the area. This will produce sea breeze showers and storms over
the east coast early afternoon and will move westward through the
day with the highest coverage over the coastal waters late afternoon
through the evening hours. Higher winds and seas will be possible
near any storms, otherwise no headlines are expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A trough of low pressure moves over southern Florida the next couple
of days. Scattered showers and storms will be possible south of
Tampa bay today with increasing chances on Friday and into the
weekend. With increasing rain chances and high RH values, no fire
weather hazards are expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  76  88  75  90 /  40  80  50  60
FMY  75  87  75  90 /  50  70  50  60
GIF  75  89  74  91 /  30  70  20  80
SRQ  75  88  74  90 /  50  70  50  60
BKV  73  89  72  91 /  30  80  50  70
SPG  78  87  77  90 /  50  70  60  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT...25/Davis

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
353 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019

FLZ155-160-162-165-255-260-262-265-282100-
Coastal Charlotte FL-Inland Manatee FL-Inland Charlotte FL-
Coastal Manatee FL-Inland Lee FL-Inland Sarasota FL-
Coastal Sarasota FL-Coastal Lee FL-
353 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MANATEE...WESTERN CHARLOTTE...
CENTRAL LEE AND SARASOTA COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 352 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Myakka City to 7 miles west of North Port
to 8 miles north of Pineland to McGregor. Movement was northwest at
10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Cape Coral, Fort Myers, North Port, Sarasota, Bradenton, Punta Gorda,
Palmetto, Port Charlotte, Anna Maria, South Gate Ridge, Lake
Sarasota, Saint Armands Key, Palmona Park, Southwest Florida Airport,
North Sarasota, Harlem Heights, Lochmoor Waterway Estates, Memphis,
Cypress Lake and West Samoset.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2644 8203 2676 8233 2757 8275 2757 8209
      2703 8209 2653 8166 2639 8198
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 175DEG 6KT 2741 8219 2708 8231 2678 8217 2658
8192

TBW

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