Alert archive / Florida / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2019

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

May 5, 2019Polk County, Florida

NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 5, 2019, 1:59 PM EDT for Polk County, Florida. It was in force for 46 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: May 5, 2019, 1:59 PM EDT (17:59 UTC)
Expired: May 5, 2019, 2:45 PM EDT
In force: 46 min
Issued by: NWS Tampa Bay, FL
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 0.75 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Polk County, FL

The radar

The Tampa radar (KTBW), 74 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Cape Canaveral, FL (KXMR), launched 12:00Z, 6.0 hours before the alert went out and 131 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1271 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -56 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 923 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 59 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 68 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.3
Supercell composite: 2.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 5, 8:55 AM EDT, 5 hours 4 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 5, 8:55 AM EDT, 5 hours 4 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
855 AM EDT Sun May 5 2019

.UPDATE...
Large and persistent convective complex continues to move
into the E Gulf this morning supported by potent upper vort
max and dynamics. Have updated forecasts and grids and raised
PoPs most areas based on radar and satellite trends as well
as hi rez models.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT-NMRS showers and thunderstorms are expected through the
day, with brief periods of reduced cigs/vsbys possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Convective complex in E Gulf has produced increased SW flow
this morning. Latest buoy reports showing seas 2-3 ft and
have updated forecasts and grids to reflect choppier conditions.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 309 AM EDT Sun May 5 2019/

DISCUSSION...
A mid/upper-level trough continues to move through the Mississippi
River Valley region early this morning, keeping a west-southwest
flow in place aloft over Florida. At the surface, low pressure and
an associated cold front are moving over the southeast. Surface high
pressure centered over the western Atlantic is also stretched across
southern Florida. A line of showers and thunderstorms is moving
toward the Nature Coast and should impact these areas later this
morning.

Sunday is not expected to be a washout by any means, but rain
chances are on the high side due to both the proximity of the cold
front and the sea breeze. First, the surface low mentioned above
will move quickly to the northeast through the rest of the day, with
the cold front moving into northern Florida. Then we have the
position of the high pressure ridge axis over south Florida, which
leads to a southwest to west flow across the local area. In turn,
this will push the sea breeze quickly inland, so while showers and
some thunderstorms will be possible over toward the Gulf, most of
the activity will consolidate away from the coast as we head into
the evening hours. Cloud cover and rain might keep highs down just a
bit, but it will still be a warm and humid day overall.

For Monday, the weakening cold front is actually forecast to drop
southward across the peninsula before it dissipates. We should also
see a similar sea breeze setup, pushing most activity inland through
the afternoon.

Ridging builds in aloft for the rest of the week with surface high
pressure centered to our northeast. Sea breeze showers and
thunderstorms can be expected each day with hot and humid conditions
continuing.

FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values are forecast to
remain above critical levels. No significant fog is expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  84  73  87  70 /  60  20  20   0
FMY  88  73  89  70 /  30  10  30  10
GIF  85  71  90  67 /  70  20  50  10
SRQ  85  73  85  70 /  50  20  20   0
BKV  85  70  88  65 /  60  20  20   0
SPG  84  73  86  70 /  60  20  20   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...25/Davis
UPPER AIR...99
DECISION SUPPORT...99

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 5, 1:05 PM EDT, 54 minutes before

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Local storm report, May 5, 1:10 PM EDT, 49 minutes before

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Local storm report, May 5, 1:11 PM EDT, 48 minutes before

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Local storm report, May 5, 1:19 PM EDT, 40 minutes before

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Local storm report, May 5, 1:26 PM EDT, 33 minutes before

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Local storm report, May 5, 1:56 PM EDT, 3 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 5, 10:21 AM EDT	Special Marine Warning	TBW		39 min
May 5, 10:27 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	TBW	Citrus, Levy	63 min
May 5, 11:44 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	TBW	Citrus, Hernando, Sumter	46 min
May 5, 12:04 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	TBW		56 min
May 5, 12:22 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TBW	Hillsborough, Manatee, Pinellas	38 min
May 5, 12:36 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	TBW	Pinellas	9 min
May 5, 12:55 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	TBW	Citrus, Hernando, Hillsborough, Levy, Pasco, Pinellas and 1 more	65 min
May 5, 1:05 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TBW	Hillsborough, Pasco	25 min
May 5, 1:28 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TBW	Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, Polk, Sumter	32 min
May 5, 1:43 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TBW	Citrus, Levy	2 hr
May 5, 1:46 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TBW	Citrus, Sumter	29 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Florida, 2019 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.