Tornado Warning 16, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1004 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2019

.UPDATE...

SPC has expanded the slight risk farther south. Otherwise no major
changes to the forecast for today. Forecast for timing and
intensity of storms still looks on track.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [614 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The bottom line is that all available guidance continues to suggest
a threat of severe storms across the area from this afternoon into
the overnight hours. There is general agreement that the best
overlay of CAPE and shear will be located across the northern
portions of the forecast area, generally near and north of a line
from Dothan to Tifton. This is where the Storm Prediction Center has
outlooked an enhanced risk of severe storms. The risk of severe
weather gradually decreases the farther south one goes, however it
should be noted that almost the entire area has at least some level
of risk today.

Storm mode will almost certainly consist of at least a QLCS just
ahead of the cold front starting this afternoon into the early
evening across portions of southeast Alabama, the Florida panhandle,
and adjacent southwest Georgia. This squall line will progress
eastward across the remainder of the forecast area during the
overnight hours. The trickiest part of the forecast is whether or
not any discrete supercells will form ahead of the squall line. Some
runs of the HRRR show this occurring, while others do not. If cells
do develop ahead of the main line, then the potential exists for a
couple of strong tornadoes given the strong low level jet and
favorable hodographs. Some large hail could also occur. Even if this
scenario doesn't pan out, there is still the risk of a few embedded
tornadoes along the squall line as well as damaging wind gusts.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

Cold front will push through the southeastern Big Bend Monday
morning, with a few showers lingering across this portion of the
region early in the period. This will give way to clearing skies and
much cooler and drier conditions by Monday afternoon. Cold air will
continue advecting into the region On Tuesday, with the coldest
airmass since late January settling in place by mid-week. Expect
highs generally in the upper 50s to mid 60s on Monday, falling to
the mid to upper 50s on Tuesday. Overnight lows will range from the
mid 30s to low 40s Monday night. A light freeze is possible Tuesday
night, with temperatures falling below the freezing mark across
portions of the wiregrass. The rest of the region will see lows
generally in the 33 to 36 degree range.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

Dry and unseasonably cool weather will persist on Wednesday, with
highs remaining in the low to mid 50s, almost 20 degrees below
normal for early March. A light freeze will be possible once again
Wednesday night as lows will fall into the low 30s once again
regionwide. Temperatures will moderate beginning on Thursday as
upper level flow becomes zonal once again over the region. Dry
weather will persist through at least the start of the weekend.
However, longer range global guidance has been hinting at another
system and associated cold front pushing through the region
during the day 7+ period. Despite the upcoming cold snap this
week, it appears that Spring is well on its way for the tri-state
region. Stay tuned.

.AVIATION...

[Through 12z Monday] Low clouds and areas of fog are expected to
result in IFR to LIFR conditions through the mid-morning hours.
Showers and thunderstorms will begin this afternoon near DHN and
ABY and move southeast through the region through the evening and
overnight. Some storms may become severe. Otherwise, breezy
conditions are expected through the day.

.MARINE...

Cautionary conditions are expected today with seas increasing to 2
to 4 feet this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to spread over coastal waters this afternoon and evening. Expect
elevated winds and seas through Monday, with a brief reprieve on
Monday night. Advisory level wind and seas will be possible by
Tuesday night into Wednesday.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.

.HYDROLOGY...

Generally 1 to 2 inches of rain are expected with today's showers
and thunderstorms, with the highest amounts forecast for the
Wiregrass region of southeastern Alabama into southwestern and
southcentral Georgia. Note that isolated higher amounts will be
possible under the strongest storms and/or in any areas of cell
training this afternoon. Flooding concerns today will generally be
limited to poor drainage areas given the recent dry spell across
the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the office or
tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   77  54  64  42  59 /  60  90  20  10  10
Panama City   73  51  60  42  57 /  60 100  10  10  10
Dothan        76  44  56  36  53 /  90 100   0  10  10
Albany        75  47  58  38  55 /  80 100  10  10  10
Valdosta      77  55  62  41  58 /  50  80  20  10  10
Cross City    79  63  69  45  63 /  20  80  40  10  10
Apalachicola  73  56  63  43  59 /  60  90  20  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...McD
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Pullin
LONG TERM...Pullin
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Pullin
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Pullin

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
144 PM EST SUN MAR 3 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0124 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 N BLACK               31.04N 85.74W
03/03/2019                   GENEVA             AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

WD